Key investment points
Tracking of intelligent electric vehicle demand in November 2021: 1) tracking of electrification: the penetration rate of new energy reached 20.0%, up 1.4pct month on month, and the absolute sales volume continued to increase. The proportion of sales of new forces of car making in electric vehicles rebounded to 25.1%, up 3.0 PCT month on month. Among the top three independent new forces, sales of ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai all increased. Among them, Tesla‘s sales in China remained stable, reaching 52859 vehicles, a month on month increase of – 4.9%; Weilai automobile sold 10878 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 196.6%; Xiaopeng sold 15613 cars, another record high, with a month on month increase of + 21.1%; Ideal car sales were 13485, a month on month increase of + 48.6%. 2) Intelligent function penetration tracking: HUD penetration rate is higher than that of traditional automobile enterprises, and the overall penetration rate of lidar is low; The overall penetration rate of active braking function is nearly half, and the dynamic penetration rate of traditional vehicle enterprise line control is low; The penetration rate of Expressway auxiliary functions has gradually increased, and the urban automatic driving function is only available for Xiaopeng P5 model.
News tracking of intelligent electric vehicle industry: publicly solicit the technical standards of intelligent Internet connection testing, and launch the supporting policies of intelligent Internet connection vehicles in many places. Intelligent electric policy tracking: 1) the Ministry of industry and information technology publicly solicits motor test methods, battery specifications and dimensions, and technical requirements for intelligent network connection test; 2) The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the development plan for the deep integration of informatization and industrialization in the 14th five year plan, which requires accelerating the application of intelligent products in transportation. Industry information tracking: 1) new players on the high-performance autopilot platform accelerated their admission, and Huawei + Qualcomm obtained new partners. Huawei + Qualcomm autopilot platform obtains new partners to accelerate its entry into the field of high-performance autopilot computing; 2) The intelligent process of automobile enterprises is accelerated, and Geely’s self-developed chip + Byd Company Limited(002594) cooperates with momenta. Geely core engine technology self-developed 7Nm vehicle specification SOC chip to meet the requirements of automatic driving above L3 level, Byd Company Limited(002594) cooperate with momenta to develop intelligent driving; 3) The electrical structure of the whole vehicle continues to upgrade, and Xiaopeng + ai’an + Weima evolve to a centralized structure. The mainland has received orders from Chinese vehicle enterprises. The central computing unit will be mass produced in 2023. The new cars of Xiaopeng, Weima and ai’an adopt the central centralized architecture. The integration of body + central gateway will become the next industrial trend; 4) Tesla leads the cockpit chip computing competition. Qualcomm’s fourth generation 5nm chip is expected to be loaded and mass produced in 2023. Tesla modely is equipped with AMD chip, and its computing power is twice that of Qualcomm’s third-generation cockpit; 5) The concept of sliding plate chassis is hot. The new generation chassis technology has attracted market attention, and brake by wire + steering by wire products will become the industrial trend.
Tracking targets of intelligent electric vehicles: 2021 / 11 / 10-2021 / 12 / 10. Among the tracking targets of intelligent electric vehicles, the weighted increase of market value of domestic listed companies was – 0.96%, and the top three vehicle enterprises were Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) / Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) / Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) , with increases of + 5.66% / + 1.91% / + 1.42% respectively; Among the parts, the top three companies were Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) / Nextel / Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , with increases of + 21.13% / + 14.10% / + 4.65% respectively. From 2021 to 2023, the weighted average PE value of the market value of the domestic core target is 78.18/52.52/38.67 times, and the weighted average PS value of the market value is 4.31/3.48/2.75 times. The weighted increase of market value of overseas listed companies was – 0.39%, the increase of ideal automobile / Xiaopeng automobile in the new power of car making was + 9.51% / + 5.64% respectively, and the decrease of Tesla / velai automobile was – 4.77% / – 13.38% respectively. The weighted average PE of the market value of the core subject matter of overseas listing from 2021 to 2023 is 139.31/128.80/136.73 times, and the weighted average PS value is 20.78/16.79/13.90 times. Suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment in the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to rise. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Jiangjian segment recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bert Guoqi research + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the development of intelligent driving industry is less than expected, laws and regulations restrict the development of intelligent driving, and there is a risk of intensified trade friction between China and the United States.
