The complete parity of wind power promotes the general trend of carbon neutrality, and the industrial chain is expected to be revalued after the development is accelerated
The wind power industry has stood at a new starting point: after the parity of onshore and offshore wind power in the past two years, the industrial chain has entered a new stage of market-oriented development, forming a positive feedback with the trend of carbon neutrality. After the onshore wind power parity in 2021, the large-scale unit has promoted the general trend of cost reduction, and the supply chain pattern has been further optimized; Offshore wind power is expected to be parity in 2022, bringing incremental space to the industrial chain. Looking to the future, We are mainly optimistic about three opportunities: (1) core parts enterprises that can go global or achieve domestic substitution, benefiting from: Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) ; (2) offshore wind power industry chain that is expected to span from 1 to 10 in the next few years, benefiting from: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) ; (3) Benefit from the whole machine leader with accelerated installed growth in 2022, and benefit targets: Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , etc.
Large base project + offshore planning, medium and long-term growth certainty improved
The construction plan of large bases will become the most important source of new wind power installed capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan Period: the nine clean energy bases and five offshore wind power bases proposed in the 14th five year plan and the outline of long-term objectives for 2035 have begun, and the provinces involved in the large bases have issued wind power and photovoltaic plans during the 14th Five Year Plan period, According to the statistics of Polaris Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic network, 46 megawatt large base projects and 41 megawatt large base projects have been planned in all provinces (regions / cities). During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's annual average installed capacity of wind power is expected to be 50-70gw, and the cumulative installed capacity is expected to exceed 800gw by 2030.
The bidding scale has been greatly increased, and it is expected to usher in high growth in 2022
The bidding volume of wind power equipment in the first three quarters of 2021 was 41.9gw, a year-on-year increase of 115%; Under the condition that the scale of open market bidding does not decline significantly in the fourth quarter of 2021, we expect the scale of open market bidding to be about 60GW in 2021. Based on the bidding scale in 2020 and 2021, we expect the new installed capacity to be about 40gw / 55gw in 2021 / 2022, and the new installed capacity of wind power is expected to increase by more than 30% in 2022.
The wind power industry chain continues to evolve, focusing on three main lines
At present, led by the trend of large-scale unit power, the wind turbine industry chain is in the process of rapid iterative upgrading and cost reduction of products. Under the trend of market-oriented development, leading machine manufacturers and parts enterprises with core technical advantages, strong supply chain management and control ability and good cost control are expected to obtain new market share and continue to strengthen core competitiveness Enhance its long-term growth. We suggest to pay close attention to three main lines: (1) core components with strong growth, such as wind towers with good competition pattern and domestic replacement of ongoing bearings; (2) greatly benefit from large-scale and cost-effective offshore wind power, and technological progress is expected to open up 100 GW incremental space, benefiting links such as submarine cables and large blades; (3) The acceleration of installed capacity growth in 2022 will bring elastic opportunities, among which companies with increased product market share will benefit more, such as Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) .
Risk tip: the installed capacity of wind power is less than expected, the cost reduction and technological progress of large-scale are less than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
