Key investment points:
According to the data of Qin Lianhui and mini-usdm, the number of models of Qin Lianhui and mini-usdm is 10000 in August, respectively. In addition, there are several new energy models with outstanding wholesale performance, such as Chery QQ ice cream, Chery EQ, Benben EV, Euler cat, Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang DM, Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plusbev and other models, which have great potential to sprint the goal of selling more than 10000 vehicles per month. We expect that with the launch of Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM-I, Byd Company Limited(002594) destroyer 05, Weilai et7 / et5, Xiaopeng G9 and other key models in 2022, as well as the launch of more heavy models in Beijing auto show, the popular models of new energy will expand significantly and promote the continuous high growth of the market.
In January, Byd Company Limited(002594) accounted for 3 seats in the top 5 of the respective wholesale volume of cars and SUVs, and 4 seats in the top 10, with more and more obvious advantages; The strength of Tesla's two models, Model3 and modely, remains the same, and modely continues to maintain the champion position of new energy SUV sales. In addition, among the top 10 new energy car wholesalers, six are A0 / A00 cars, including Hongguang miniev, Byd Company Limited(002594) dolphin, QQ ice cream, Benben EV, Chery EQ and Euler cat, which is largely due to the gradual increase in the proportion of users in China.
The concentration of new energy models decreased rapidly, and the concentration of automobile enterprises stabilized. The development of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market is more diversified, there are more and more competitive products in the market, and the market share is gradually dispersed. From January 2021 to January 2022, the market share of top 10 models of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars decreased from 58.4% to 44.8%. Compared with the rapid decline in the concentration of new energy models, the concentration of automobile enterprises is relatively stable. From January 2021 to January 2022, CR10 decreased from 78.1% to 71.7%, while Cr5 only decreased from 59.7% to 55.2%. The head effect is obvious. With the rapid development and progress of China's new energy vehicle business, their respective competitiveness will continue to be divided, and the pattern will be gradually clear and optimized.
In January 2022, Byd Company Limited(002594) continued to take a significant lead among the top 15 automobile enterprises in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles, Chery ranked third, and new forces won 1 / 3 of the seats Byd Company Limited(002594) with the excellent performance and absolute advantages of dynasty.com and ocean.com, it continues to lead the list of new energy terminal retail volume; Chery became the dark horse of the month and ranked third in the list with the excellent performance of QQ ice cream and EQ models; Among the new forces, five enterprises including Xiaopeng (7th), ideal (9th), Nezha (10th), Weilai (12th) and Zero run (13th) were on the list, winning 1 / 3 of the seats in the top 15. Among the 15 auto enterprises, only 3 are foreign-funded / joint venture auto enterprises, and independent brands have obvious advantages in the field of new energy vehicles.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In December 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 19%, the automotive industry has changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces has increased continuously, and the performance of domestic suppliers of Tesla has generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
2. Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
3. Complete vehicle: Tesla wave brings the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation & strong model cycle OEM. It is recommended to recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , pay attention to Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk tip: if the overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate, it will affect China's automobile export; Focus on the risk that the company's performance is less than expected; The risk that the demand growth is less than expected; Risk of continuous rise in raw material prices and freight; The risk that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
