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Since the beginning of 2021 (2022.2.25), our defined retail index has fallen by 8.77%, outperforming CSI 300 (- 13.18%) and underperforming the new retail index (- 5.62%). At present, the PE / PS / Pb of the industry is at the percentile of 1.30% / 85.60% / 86.30% since the beginning of 2010. Among them, PE is obviously in the undervalued range. The main reason is that the weighted average affects the overall PE level of the industry because the profits of many companies have fallen to negative value and have not been improved continuously. At present, the retail industry is in a state of low allocation, which needs to be increased in the future. From the perspective of policy, promoting the upgrading of residents’ consumption and cultivating new consumption have become the theme of the policy during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, good market order requires supporting institutional environment and regulatory measures, and various laws and regulations, quality standards and post evaluation system during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be gradually improved. On February 28, the national teleconference on consumption promotion was held. In 2022, we will adhere to the principle of maintaining stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability. On the basis of doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, we will introduce pragmatic and effective policies and measures to promote consumption. We will innovate and carry out a series of consumption promotion activities, create a consumption upgrading platform, improve the energy level of traditional consumption, accelerate the development of new consumption, promote the continuous recovery and upgrading of consumption, strive to achieve “open door stability” of consumption and consolidate the basic role of consumption in economic development. From the perspective of the industry, the growth rate of the Spring Festival in 2022 is lower than that of the previous 7-day small and long holiday (i.e. the November holiday in 2021 is basically the same or slightly higher), but it has dropped to a certain extent compared with the performance of new year’s day this year. Consumption on New Year’s day and Spring Festival this year has basically made a stable start. At present, the consumer market environment and policy environment are relatively positive and optimistic. With the further promotion of China’s epidemic control effect and vaccine popularization, China’s economy is gradually returning to the previous growth track, residents’ consumer confidence and the vitality of China’s consumer market have recovered steadily, In 2022, the growth rate of social consumption will further approach the level before the epidemic. In order to reasonably guide the expectation of the consumer market, combined with the 2025 development plan of China’s consumer market in the “14th five year plan” business development plan of the Ministry of Commerce, we conservatively predict that the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption in 2022 will be about 4.5% – 5.5%. From the market level, combined with the existing performance forecast and performance express for the whole year of 21 years, the revenue of Listed Companies in the consumer goods retail industry in the first three quarters has increased compared with last year, and is gradually getting rid of the impact of the epidemic and in a state of recovery, but the net profit has decreased year-on-year, and the profitability needs to be enhanced. In the fourth quarter of the year, the online channels ushered in the “double 11” online promotion. Offline stores and e-commerce platforms formed omni-channel marketing. At the same time, with the help of thematic activities such as Christmas in December, store celebration at the end of the year, January New Year’s day and Spring Festival, they continued to attract consumers to stores to experience feelings and achieve consumption. Both channels and brands actively grasped the opportunities in the peak season during this time period, Sprint for further growth of total annual sales. In the above context, consumer goods that meet the needs of holiday celebrations, banquets and gifts (such as drinks, gold jewelry and cosmetics), the “double 11” hot selling categories (such as home appliances 3C, cosmetics, personal care and clothing), as well as the corresponding channel providers (such as e-commerce and shopping) have ushered in the expansion of sales scale; In addition, at the end of the year, a small-scale outbreak of delta mutant virus began to occur in many places. We believe that we still need to pay attention to investment opportunities in basic livelihood industries (such as personal care and other daily necessities, supermarket channels).
Investment recommendations: investment recommendations: investment recommendations: investment recommendations: keep the omnichannel configuration list unchanged, and recommendations – Retail Channel categories like tianhrainbow department store ( Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) . SZ) ( Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) . SZ), Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\z), Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) ( Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.Ltd(605136) . SH); As well as the Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) . SZ), Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) ( Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) . SZ).
Risk warning: the risk that the degree of epidemic prevention and control is lower than expected; The risk of insufficient consumer confidence.
