According to the released performance forecast for 2021, the net profit of more than half of the companies in the social service industry increased year-on-year, and the proportion of loss reversal, advance increase, continued profit and slight increase increased compared with last year. In the forecast, 34% of the companies are still in the state of continuous loss, but the median value of the total net profit of the industry has increased by 101%, the bottom of the industry has rebounded, and it is expected to warm up. The company is actively transforming and seeking change, showing strong performance toughness as a whole. To normalize the epidemic prevention and control, it is suggested to actively allocate leading cultural and tourism enterprises and maintain the industry's stronger than the market rating.
The proportion of performance forecast improvement increased, and the industry is expected to pick up. As of February 28, 2022, 58 of the 80 listed companies in the social service industry and tourism retail sector have disclosed performance forecast / performance express, of which 33 have achieved positive year-on-year growth in net profit (calculated according to the lower limit of performance). 22 companies with year-on-year performance improvement (including slight increase, loss recovery, pre increase and continued profit), accounting for 38%. Among them, 13 companies turned losses, but the deduction of non parent net profit of 7 companies was negative. There were 36 companies whose performance deteriorated year-on-year (including slight reduction, first loss, continued loss and pre reduction), accounting for 62%. The proportion of performance improvement has increased, but it is still the second lowest in recent ten years. The overall performance of the sector in 2021 is still under pressure due to the uncertainty of the epidemic, but it has rebounded compared with 2020, and the recovery trend in the future remains unchanged.
Hotels, tourism and sports recovered against the trend, and tax exemption maintained high growth. From the change range of performance, 1) education is greatly affected by the double reduction policy, with an estimated loss of 6.728 ~ 5.435 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 135.54% to 191.57%. 2) Tourism and scenic spots are expected to lose 3.035 ~ 4.379 billion yuan, but the lower limit of net profit growth is 30.85%. Most of the company's losses are narrowed, including Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (year-on-year + 114.72% to + 120.43%), Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) (year-on-year + 10.35%), China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) (year-on-year + 106.46%), Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (year-on-year + 41.36% to + 54.67%). 3) Sports is expected to lose 6.728-5.435 billion yuan, of which Wuhan Ddmc Culture & Sports Co.Ltd(600136) (year-on-year + 55.35% to + 69.89%) and Shanghai Lisheng Racing Co.Ltd(002858) (year-on-year + 109.81%). 4) The profit of professional services is expected to be 876 ~ 1127 million, of which Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (year-on-year + 24.95% to + 35.95%). 5) The hotel's catering industry is expected to suffer a loss of RMB 273151 million, Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) (from - 220821% to - 176437% year-on-year). The hotel's counter trend expansion has taken effect and quickly turned losses into profits, including Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (from + 109.07% to + 113.10% year-on-year), Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) (from + 111.69% to + 117.53% year-on-year). 6) Tourism retail ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) seizes the opportunity of tax exemption and consumption return on outlying islands, with an estimated profit of 9.592 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 56.23%. The estimated loss of the whole industry (excluding China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) is 8.068 ~ 11.359 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% to an increase of 22.36%. The whole industry is expected to have a loss of 1.959 billion to a profit of 2.032 billion, a year-on-year increase of 53.94% to 147.78%.
Investment suggestions:
In terms of policies, the "14th five year plan" tourism development plan and relief policies have been issued one after another, which is beneficial to the recovery of the industry from stimulating demand and protecting supply; In terms of fundamentals, the company actively improved its operating efficiency and reduced costs. To a certain extent, the epidemic forced enterprises to innovate products to consolidate their competitive advantage, and the sectors of hotels and scenic spots were cleared quickly. Hainan duty-free stores improve the reception capacity of offline stores and accelerate the online digital transformation, and the leading effect of China tax exemption is expected to be further highlighted. With the increase of vaccination and the normalization of prevention and control, the recovery logic of the culture and tourism industry is not disturbed by the factors of short-term epidemic distribution, and remains stronger than the market rating. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and recommend hotels and scenic spots in the process of cultural and tourism restoration; It is also suggested to pay attention to the innovative targets of enterprises and life services released by the demand for ice and snow tourism.
Main risks of rating:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
