SiC silicon carbide: the golden age of industrialization has come; Substrate is the core of industrialization breakthrough
1) superior performance in high-voltage and high-power application scenarios, suitable for high-voltage scenarios above 600V. Compared with silicon-based MOSFET, silicon carbide based MOSFET with the same specification has the size reduced to 1 / 10, the on resistance reduced to 1 / 100, the total energy loss reduced by 70%, and the energy conversion efficiency improved. Downstream applications include new energy vehicles, charging piles, photovoltaic, wind power, rail transit and other fields.
2) benefiting from the outbreak of new energy vehicles, the golden age of SiC industrialization will come. Yole predicts that the market scale of SiC power devices will reach US $4.5 billion in 2026, and CAGR = 36% from 2020 to 2026. New energy vehicles are the main growth driver of silicon carbide power device market. Application end: solve the endurance pain point. Cost side: a single car can save $400800 in battery cost. Client: Tesla and other car companies have been laid out one after another. At present, Tesla is only used on the main inverter, and there is room for further application and improvement in the future.
3) cost performance is the key to the mass use of SiC devices, and substrate preparation is the core to improve the cost performance of silicon carbide. Among the cost proportion of silicon carbide devices, substrate, epitaxy and devices account for 46%, 23% and 20% respectively. The substrate is the core of silicon carbide cost reduction and the highest link of technical barriers. It is the core key of SiC cost reduction and large-scale industrialization in the future.
SiC substrate: new energy vehicle + photovoltaic has great demand potential; China’s external gap has gradually narrowed and domestic substitution can be expected
1) market space: it is estimated that the market demand for new energy vehicles + photovoltaic inverters will reach 26.1 billion yuan in 2025, and CAGR = 79% from 2021 to 2025. New energy vehicles: at present, the annual demand of Tesla Model 3 / y alone can consume the vast capacity of SiC wafers in the world. We estimate that the penetration rate of SiC in new energy vehicles will reach 60% in 2025, and the demand for 6-inch SiC substrate is expected to reach 5.87 million pieces / year, with a market space of 23.1 billion yuan. Photovoltaic inverter: in the era of “large module, large inverter and large series”, the voltage level of photovoltaic power station is increased from 1000V to more than 1500V, and silicon carbide power devices are expected to become standard. We assume that the permeability of silicon carbide will increase to 50% in 2025, corresponding to the SiC substrate Market of 3 billion yuan. The core bottleneck of the industry lies in the lack of supply side.
2) competition pattern: China’s external gap is gradually narrowing, and domestic substitution can be expected. At present, overseas leaders (wolfspeed and II-VI account for more than 60% of the market share) have realized 6-inch large-scale supply and entered 8-inch. Domestic manufacturers (Tianyue advanced, Tianke Heda, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) etc.) mainly focus on small size and march towards 6 inches. However, it can be observed that the heterodyne distance in China is narrowing, and the overall gap is smaller than that of traditional silicon-based semiconductors. China’s heterodyne gap has narrowed from the past 10-15 years (4 inches) to less than 5-10 years (6 inches). It is expected that the gap is expected to be further narrowed in the process of marching towards 8 inches in the future.
3) production process: it is more difficult than silicon-based semiconductor; Long crystal link is the key. Silicon carbide substrate is a technology intensive industry. The core difficulty lies in: the long crystal process is complex (only a few types such as 4H are required), the growth speed is slow (only 0.2-0.3mm can be grown per hour, nearly 100 times slower than the traditional crystalline silicon), and the yield is low (the hardness is close to that of diamond, so it is difficult to cut, grind and polish). “Production, study, research and application” is an important driving force for the development of silicon carbide substrates in China. Chinese universities and scientific research institutions mainly include Institute of physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shandong University, Shanghai Institute of silicate, etc.
4) industry trend: cost reduction is the core of industrialization and extends to large scale. At present, the price of 6-inch SiC substrate is US $1000 / chip, which is several times higher than that of traditional silicon-based semiconductor. In the future, cost reduction methods include: improving material utilization rate (large size, extending from 4 inches to 6 inches and 8 inches), reducing manufacturing cost (improving yield), and improving production efficiency (more mature long crystal process).
SiC substrate equipment: it has little difference from traditional crystalline silicon, and process adjustment is the core barrier
It mainly includes: long crystal furnace, slicer, grinder, polishing machine, cleaning equipment, etc. It has certain connectivity with traditional crystalline silicon equipment, but the process is more difficult. There are few third-party equipment manufacturers of silicon carbide substrate, and more enterprises focus on the integrated layout of equipment + manufacturing, which is convenient to master the core process secrets in their own hands. Joint research and development of equipment + process and mutual feeding are the key.
Investment advice
Key recommendation: Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) . Focus on Listed Companies: Tianyue advanced, Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Zhejiang Tony Electronic Co.Ltd(603595) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) , Phenix Optical Company Limited(600071) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Xinjiang Tianfu Energy Co.Ltd(600509) , etc. Focus on non listed companies: Tianke Heda, Hebei Tongguang, Shandong shuoko, hantiancheng, Tianyu semiconductor, Zhongke energy saving, Tyco Tianrun, etc.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is less than the expected risk; International trade disputes exacerbate risks.
