Market review:
In February 2022, the rise and fall of CSI 300 was + 0.39, and the rise and fall of gem was – 1.17%. The automobile industry rose or fell by + 0.13%, Wande power battery index (884963. WI) rose or fell by + 7.93%, surpassing 26 of the 30 first tier industries of CITIC, and the national securities new energy vehicle index (399417. SZ) rose or fell by + 5.16%. Among the power battery related sectors, the lithium mineral index ranked first with a monthly increase or decrease of + 31.68%, and the lithium diaphragm ranked last with a monthly increase or decrease of + 5.01%.
Industry tracking:
Power battery:
In January 2022, the output of power batteries increased significantly, and lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. In terms of production, the output of ternary battery was 1081530 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 57.95%, and the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 1879010 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 261.79%.
The proportion of lithium iron phosphate loading increased. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 7299.9 MW, a year-on-year increase of + 35.22%, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 8873.9 MW, a year-on-year increase of + 172.72%. In terms of market share of loading volume, ternary batteries accounted for + 45.13%, a year-on-year increase of -17.26pct, and lithium iron phosphate accounted for + 54.87%, a year-on-year increase of + 17.26pct. In terms of enterprises, the share of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises remained relatively stable, the share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) took the lead, and the share of Byd Company Limited(002594) increased significantly year-on-year.
New energy vehicles:
The production and sales reached a new high in January, with a monthly production and sales scale of more than 450000 vehicles, and the production and sales volume maintained a rapid growth trend year-on-year. The monthly production and sales volume of new energy vehicles were 452200 and 431400 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.55% and + 140.79% respectively.
In terms of models, the monthly production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles increased year-on-year, but the year-on-year growth of production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles was significantly ahead of that of new energy commercial vehicles. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was + 1.27 million and + 0.48 million, respectively.
In terms of power sources, the monthly production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles increased significantly month on month and year-on-year, and the monthly production and sales volume and the cumulative production and sales volume of this year doubled year-on-year.
In the past month, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have increased significantly. The price of lithium carbonate is 468000 yuan / ton, lithium hydroxide 419500 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate 111500 yuan / ton, lithium iron phosphate cathode 160000 yuan / ton, and middle end artificial graphite 51500 yuan / ton.
Investment suggestion: the recent hot sales of new energy vehicles, combined with 22 years of good expected sales, have led to a significant increase in the price of lithium resources in the upstream of power batteries. At present, before the development of battery recycling and other lithium extraction technologies, lithium resources can not reach the balance between supply and demand. Suggestions on the upstream of power battery industry chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the middle reaches of the power battery industry chain: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , beiteri Shenzhen Hekeda Precision Cleaning Equipment Co.Ltd(002816) Li; It is suggested to pay attention to the downstream of power battery industry chain: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) .
Risk tips: policy changes; Changes in lithium technology route; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was lower than expected.
