Key investment points:
Steel:
The procurement volume of thread screw was 84.38% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 24.38%; The output of the five major steel enterprises was + 4.38% month on month and – 8.53% year on year; The chain comparison of steel price is -0.87%; Gross profit fell month on month. Supply and demand picked up slightly, the raw material side stabilized under regulatory adjustment, and the steel price was weak. At present, the demand for stable economy still needs to be released. According to historical experience, the demand inflection point may come in early March. In the long run, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
LME copper current price / Changjiang nonferrous copper current price – 0.95% / – 0.63% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 1.25% / + 0.44%. Copper: the situation in Russia and Ukraine triggered risk aversion, and copper prices fell slightly. Aluminum: if Russia’s export is limited, Europe’s energy dependence on Russia will raise energy prices and increase the expectation of production reduction of European aluminum plants; At the same time, Russia is also an important source of supply of primary aluminum in Europe. Restricting exports will further raise aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices may rise.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide was + 5.00% / + 7.39% month on month. Affected by the manufacturer’s maintenance in late February, the short-term supply is still tight, the inventory remains low, the downstream demand is strong, the price continues to rise, and the short-term lithium price center is expected to rise steadily.
Rare earth:
The prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide were flat month on month / – 0.32% / + 0.66%. The supply is limited by the epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia. The high price leads to the enhancement of the wait-and-see psychology of some downstream users, and the rare earth price may fluctuate at a high level. Under the framework of energy-saving motors and new energy, the demand for magnetic materials is gradually opened, and the industry boom is optimistic for a long time.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ).
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
