Key investment points:
Review of the secondary market: this week (2022.2.21-2.25), the home appliance industry fell by 3.96%, ranking 25th in CITIC’s primary industry classification, with a sluggish performance. Among the subdivided and related sectors of household appliances, the manufacturing sector of household appliance parts and professional equipment rose by 3.11%, ranking the first; Among other segments, the decline of small household appliances, kitchen electricity and black electricity was larger than that of the previous week, falling by 0.75%, 1.83% and 2.18% respectively; The white electricity sector continued to decline, falling 5.38% this week, about 1.4 percentage points lower than the overall level of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, of the 84 A-share listed companies in the household appliance industry this week, 23 rose, 3 were flat and 58 fell. Among them, Jiangsu Boxin Investing & Holdings Co.Ltd(600083) (13.29%), Guangdong Shunna Electric Co.Ltd(000533) (9.35%), Chunghsin Technology Group Co.Ltd(603996) (8.16%) ranked among the top three.
Retail market performance: in 2022w8 (2.14-2.20), the sales of China’s dual end market of all kinds of household appliances were 80.75% (online) and – 22.68% (offline) respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that of the previous week. From the perspective of focusing on the sales of household appliances, the trend of “simultaneous rise in volume and price” in some online markets is significant. Among them, the sales volume and average price of air conditioners increased by 418.69% and 522 yuan / set respectively year-on-year, and the sales volume and average price of integrated stoves increased by 260.53% and 3876 yuan / set respectively year-on-year. Affected by the cold wave in many parts of the country, the sales volume of clothes dryers has continued to increase recently. The sales volume of 2022w8 online and offline markets were 260.31% and 43.4% respectively year-on-year, but the overall increase of average price showed a downward trend.
Data tracking of raw materials and marine real estate: LME copper and aluminum prices remained high and volatile this week, among which LME aluminum prices continued to rise, up about 20% compared with the beginning of 2022. As of the closing on February 25, LME copper and aluminum settlement prices were US $9920 / ton and US $3355.5 / ton respectively. The price of rebar continued to fall slightly. As of the closing on February 25, the settlement price of shift rebar was reported as 4656 yuan / ton; The price of large-size LCD panel continued to decline slowly. In February, the price quotation of 43 / 50 / 55 / 65 inch panel was 68 / 85 / 109 / 179 US dollars / piece, down 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 US dollars / piece compared with the previous value. In terms of shipping, the CCFI of China’s major foreign routes further decreased slightly, of which the CCFI of East-West Africa and European routes decreased by 2.49% and 2.29% respectively month on month, with a relatively obvious decline. The performance of commercial housing transactions in various tier cities across the country is different, and the second tier cities have maintained a growth trend for three consecutive weeks.
Views and investment suggestions: Recently, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of global bulk raw materials has further increased. Among them, LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reaching a record high of US $3525 / ton on February 28, 2022. As the largest natural gas supplier to Europe, Russia’s natural gas sales to Europe account for 36% of its total imports, and its exports to Europe’s primary aluminum account for 12.3%. Considering that if the situation escalates again and again and the sanctions imposed by Europe, America and other countries on Russia are increased, the European energy crisis caused by the rise in natural gas prices may be further exacerbated, The supply shortage caused by the subsequent production reduction of aluminum plants may continue to push up the aluminum price. In addition, the rise in crude oil prices also raised the price of plastics, and its market quotation increased by 5% in a week. Based on the above environmental analysis, the manufacturing industry represented by household appliances may continue to suffer from the upward pressure on the cost side of raw materials. Although some production enterprises purchase raw materials and prepare goods in advance, as the anxious time grows, it may still have a certain impact on the profit side of enterprises. Therefore, it is suggested that the home appliance industry should pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) . SZ), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) . SH), Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ( Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . SZ), Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ( Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) . SH), Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) ( Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . SH) with continuous optimization of product structure and steady increase of medium and high-end market share, as well as relevant companies with high increase in revenue and profit in the disclosure of recent performance express.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
