In February, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.00% and the nonferrous metals sector rose by 18.45%, ranking first among 30 industries with strong performance. In the chromophore industry, other rare metals (27.98%), rare earth and magnetic materials (23.77%), nickel cobalt tin antimony (21.74%), lithium (17.57%), aluminum (15.51%), lead and zinc (15.40%), gold (14.25%), copper (14.19%) and tungsten (12.74%). In terms of non-ferrous sector stocks, 107 rose and 7 fell.
Base metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, the prices of natural gas and crude oil soared, and the prices of aluminum and nickel rose at a high level. LME copper inventory continued to decline, SHFE copper inventory soared, and the high copper price fluctuated upward. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of crude oil and natural gas rise sharply, which may lead to the increase of the shutdown scale of European electrolytic aluminum plants, the decrease of aluminum supply and the increase of expectation; The aluminum price continued to rise in February, which is close to the highest point in recent years. The aluminum inventory in the futures market is still at a low level. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to remain high and volatile in March. China’s nickel ore and high nickel ore inventories are low. Nickel prices may continue to rise due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the high boom of new energy vehicles.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the risk aversion of all parties increased, and the high prices of gold and silver fluctuated upward. In February, Comex gold rose 6.43% and Comex Silver Rose 9.33%. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is escalating and the situation is complex, the game between various forces is intensifying, the West has increased financial sanctions against Russia, inflation expectations have increased, and capital risk aversion has increased significantly. Although the US Federal Reserve’s table reduction expectation is approaching, and there is downward pressure on the prices of gold and silver, the factors such as repeated covid-19 epidemic, rising global inflation expectations and Russia Ukraine conflict are gold Silver provides some support for high-level operation, and gold price may maintain a high shock pattern.
Small metals: in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the prices of lithium and series products continued to rise. In mid January, the production and sales scale of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles increased significantly year-on-year, the favorable policies for new energy vehicles continued, and the demand for lithium and cobalt was strong. In February, global lithium and lithium carbonate prices continued to rise sharply, with lithium carbonate prices exceeding US $60000 / ton. Affected by the strong demand for inventory and new energy vehicles, lithium prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, or will continue to rise at a high level.
Rare earth: light rare earth prices continue to rise. Affected by the strong demand of new energy vehicles, wind power, motors, electrical appliances and other industries, praseodymium neodymium oxide has been in short supply since the fourth quarter of last year, and the price has continued to rise since October last year. With the continuous promotion of carbon neutralization policy, the demand for light rare earths may further increase and continue to push up the price of light rare earths.
Investment suggestion: by the end of February, the PE of non-ferrous sector was 27.22 times, that of precious metal sector was 23.76 times, that of industrial metal sector was 18.83 times, and that of rare metal sector was 41.07 times. The performance of the A-share market recovered in February. Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the risk aversion of funds from all parties increased, and the volatility of bulk commodities increased. The non-ferrous metal industry was rated as “synchronous market”. It is suggested to pay attention to the aluminum, nickel, lithium, cobalt and rare earth sectors.
Risk tips: (1) geopolitical conflict intensifies; (2) The global covid-19 epidemic worsened.
