\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 168 Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) )
Event: Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) plans to transfer the 27% equity of Qinghai Dongtai Jinaier lithium resources company held by the controlling shareholder with RMB 3.34 billion. On March 1, Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) announced that the company intends to transfer 27% equity of Qinghai Dongtai Jinaier lithium resources company held by the controlling shareholder Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) group. The transaction price is about 3.343 billion yuan (100% equity valuation is 12.38 billion yuan). After the transfer, the major shareholders of lithium resources company are Qinghai Taifeng Xianxian lithium energy technology Co., Ltd. (49.5%), Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) (27%), Qinghai Lianyu potash fertilizer (20.34%), Qinghai Citic Guoan Information Industry Co.Ltd(000839) technology development (2.16%) and Qinghai state owned assets investment management company (1%).
The core asset of lithium resources company is the mining right of East Taijinar Salt Lake. It has excellent resource endowment, mature project technology, rapid production expansion and low cost of lithium extraction. (1) Lithium resources company currently owns the mining right of jinar salt lake lithium boron potassium mine in Dongtai, Golmud City, Qinghai Province. The mining area is 314.24 square kilometers, and the production scale is 30000 tons / year of lithium carbonate, 30000 tons / year of boric acid and 300000 tons / year of potassium sulfate. (2) Excellent resource endowment: LiCl porosity reserves are 2.0228 million tons, and the concentration is 303048 mg / L (equivalent to lithium ion concentration of about 494 mg / L); Boron trioxide 1233500 tons, grade 184805 mg / L; Potassium chloride is 121389 million tons, with a grade of 1.47%. (3) The project technology is mature and can be rapidly expanded: at present, the lithium resources company and its holding subsidiary Qinghai lithium industry (holding 74.5%) have operated a production line with an annual output of 20000 tons of lithium carbonate and 100000 tons of potassium sulfate and supporting public and auxiliary facilities. The annual output of 30000 tons of lithium carbonate has been put on record. Lithium resources company can build and increase the annual output of 10000 tons of lithium carbonate production line within one year. (4) Low cost of lithium extraction: according to the disclosure of the company, the annual net profit after the completion of 30000 tons of lithium carbonate in the future will reach 1.46 billion yuan, and the price of lithium carbonate is assumed to be 92500 / ton. We expect the actual full cost of lithium carbonate of the company to be less than 30000 / ton, which is at the low quantile level of global lithium carbonate production cost.
The consideration of single ton LCE transaction is at the midstream level, but considering the maturity of the project, it may be the best choice at present. The company acquired the equity of lithium resources company this time. The transaction consideration of single ton resources is 7030 yuan / ton LCE. Although the overall acquisition price of unit resources is higher than that of overseas projects, considering the mature technology of the project itself and the basically completed production line, referring to the recent China Lithium project ( Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) received the acquisition cost of 8590 yuan / ton LCE of Dachaidan Salt Lake, and the acquisition cost is reduced by 1560 yuan / ton LCE), It still belongs to a more reasonable level. In addition, the East Taijinaier project acquired by the company this time has high lithium concentration, mature electrodialysis technology and certain advantages in lithium extraction cost per ton. This acquisition of the company may be the best choice under the current situation.
Yulong Copper Mine contributes an objective increment, nickel and vanadium projects will be put into operation successively, and the company can grow in the future. (1) The second phase of Yulong copper mine will be fully produced in 2022, and the output of copper concentrate may reach 100000 tons. We expect the output of copper concentrate of the company to reach 150000 tons in 2022; (2) In 2020, the company has 252400 tons of nickel resource reserves. The reconstruction and expansion project of nickel mine is expected to be put into trial production in the first half of 2022, with an annual output of 3000 tons of nickel metal after reaching the production capacity; The second phase expansion of xikuang vanadium Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to be commissioned in April 2022.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.92 billion yuan, 3.41 billion yuan and 3.61 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with EPS of 1.23 yuan, 1.43 yuan and 1.51 yuan respectively; The PE corresponding to the closing price on March 1 was 14, 12 and 11 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the product price has fallen sharply; The progress of the project is less than expected; The acquisition was less than expected.
