\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 68 Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 283 million, with a year-on-year increase of 133.49%, close to the median value of the performance forecast and in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company's revenue was 1.861 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 283 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.49%; Deduction of non net profit of 296 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 235.00%; In 2021, the gross profit margin was 37.80%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.16pct; The net profit margin of sales was 15.33%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.83pct. The annual net profit of the parent company is close to the expected median value of 2020.8-2022 billion yuan, which is in line with the expected net profit of the parent company in the previous year.
In 2021, the company's diaphragm volume and profit increased, and the wet diaphragm contributed significantly to the performance increment. In 2021, the annual diaphragm revenue was 1.842 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 109.71%. In the second half of the year, the diaphragm revenue was 1.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%, a month on month increase of 24%, the gross profit margin was 37.75%, a year-on-year increase of 6.47 PCT, and the gross profit margin in the second half of the year was 39.89%, a month on month increase of 4.79 PCT. By region, China's revenue in 2021 was 1.447 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 124%, and the gross profit margin was 34%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.88 PCT; Overseas regions achieved revenue of 395 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71%, gross profit margin of 51%, and a year-on-year increase of 8.67 PCT. Overseas profit elasticity is large. In terms of the operation of subsidiaries, the full production and full sales of Changzhou wet process project contribute to the main performance increment.
The product structure was optimized, and the company's profit increased quarter by quarter. In 2022, the supply and demand of the diaphragm industry was tight, and the company continued to increase both volume and profit. In 2021, the sales volume of the company was 1.22 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 74%. After deducting the impact of a certain proportion of B film sales, the company's annual non flat net profit deducted reached 0.26 yuan / square meter, more than doubled year-on-year, of which about 320 million square meters were shipped in 2021q4, with a month-on-month increase of 10%. After adding back the impact of accrued bonus and impairment, we calculated that the non flat net profit deducted in 2021q4 was about 0.37 yuan / square meter, with a ring + 25%, The company's profitability increased quarter by quarter. With the further release of new production capacity, we expect that diaphragm shipments will be more than 1.7 billion square meters in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 40%. Among them, the proportion of overseas wet process will be further increased, LG is expected to double the growth, and new customers will enter northvol, SK and other customer supply chains, the customer structure will be further optimized, and the coating proportion will be further improved, We expect that the company's single average net profit is expected to further improve.
Increase production expansion, support long-term high growth, and raise 2022q3 production capacity to a higher level. By the end of 2021, the company had a production capacity of 1.5 billion square meters, full production and full sales. We expect the company to increase the capacity of dry process and wet process in the second half of 2022. We expect that the annual diaphragm shipment in 2022 will be more than 1.7 billion square meters, about + 40% year-on-year; In 2023, the production capacity will be released and the growth will be accelerated. We expect to ship more than 2.5 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 47%. In order to meet the needs of downstream customers, the company plans to raise no more than 6 billion yuan through fixed increase, increase production capacity and expand production, and the subsequent share is expected to be further increased.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the rapid growth of the company's diaphragm business volume, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 702 / 1087 / 1530 million yuan (originally expected to be 701 / 1124 million yuan in 2022 / 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 148% / 55% / 41%; The corresponding current price PE is 43 / 28 / 20 times respectively, giving 55xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target of 50 yuan, and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition intensifies
