DEA shares (301177)
Event:
The company released the performance express for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 4.623 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.11%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.249 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 131.05%, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Key points of the report:
The overall performance was brilliant, and 21q4 achieved a month on month recovery
Under the influence of factors such as the marginal acceleration of store opening scale, further optimization of store opening layout and strong drainage of brand marketing, the overall performance of the company achieved rapid growth in 2021, with 21h1 / 21q3 / 21q4 revenue of RMB 2.320/10.91/1.212 billion respectively, and 21q4 increased by 11.09% month on month compared with Q3; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 729 / 262 / 312 million yuan, an increase of 19.08% in 21q4 compared with Q3.
The industry is still in the development dividend period, and the company is expected to enter the stage of accelerating store expansion
As a typical low-frequency and high consumption product, the industry Cr5 is about 20%, and the industry pattern may be further concentrated under the trend of branding. The company seizes the minds of consumers through super brand marketing strategy, improves customer stickiness through customized products and services and the business model focusing on online and offline sales, and successfully creates a marketing closed loop of "brand building - social media drainage - consumer word-of-mouth". The company has now entered the stage of accelerating the expansion of stores. In December of 21 and January of 22, the company added 20 self operated stores and 8 self operated stores respectively. At the same time, considering the number of marriage registrations, the opening capacity of stores in municipal districts and business districts and the incremental space of comparable companies, we expect the theoretical incremental scale of offline stores of the company to be about 1500, and there is still a large space for expansion.
"Strong brand premium + full proprietary mode" is expected to maintain a high profit margin
Through the "strong brand premium + full proprietary business model", the company maintained the gross profit margin at about 70% and the net profit margin exceeded 20%. In addition, the self operated mode saves the link of transferring profits to franchisees, and the gross profit margin is 25% - 40% higher than the mainstream franchising mode in the same industry. At the same time, the higher single store output enables the company to replicate and expand under the lighter asset model. We expect that with the continuous strengthening of the company's brand power, the improvement of product design ability and the gradual emergence of the superposition scale effect, the company's profit margin and roe center are expected to remain high.
Investment advice and profit forecast
It is estimated that the revenue of DEA shares from 2022 to 2023 will be 6.444 billion yuan / 8.55 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39% / 33%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.853 billion yuan / 2.461 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42% / 33%. At present, the corresponding EPS of the total share capital and stock price are 4.63/6.15 yuan respectively, corresponding to pe21 / 16x, maintaining the "buy in" rating.
Risk tips
Industry competition intensifies, the number of marriage registrations is less than expected, and brand marketing is less than expected.
