\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 517 Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) )
The market space of leisure stewed food is large, the growth rate is fast, and the industry pattern is scattered and the integration space is large
With the continuous improvement of residents' consumption level, the consumption scene of halogen products is gradually extended from catering to leisure halogen products. In 2020, the market scale of leisure halogen products in China reached 123.5 billion yuan, and the CAGR reached 18.84% from 2015 to 2020. The proportion of leisure halogen products in the halogen products market increased from 23% in 2013 to 41% in 2020. Due to the relatively low entry threshold, mom and pop stores and small brand stores still account for the vast majority in the current leisure halogen products market (Cr5 in 2020 is only 19.2%). However, in recent years, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and other leading enterprises have made great efforts to expand stores, the scale effect has been continuously improved, the concentration of chain brands has accelerated, and there is still a large space for industry integration in the future.
Industry leader Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) has established a significant scale effect, and will continue to expand its stores and expand its advantages in the future
Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) since its establishment, it has mainly engaged in leisure halogen products with franchise stores. As of 2021h1, the number of stores has exceeded 13000, while the number of stores of Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) and Zhou Heiya is less than 5000. In addition, the company has established nearly 20 fresh food distribution bases. The huge stores and supply chain network complement each other and build a significant scale advantage. In 2020, the unit operating cost of Jue Wei was 25.50 yuan / kg, which was significantly lower than 37.63/28.84 yuan / kg of Zhou Heiya and Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) , and the unit transportation cost of Jue Wei was 1.19 yuan / kg in the same year, which was also significantly lower than 2.19/1.39 yuan / kg of Zhou Heiya and Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) . At present, behind the competitive advantage obtained by Jue Wei is the more essential forward-looking strategy formulation ability and efficient management ability. Looking forward to the future, the space for leading enterprises to open stores is still broad, and whether it is the assessment of income by equity incentive or the "start a prairie fire" sword pointing to the low-line market, it shows that Jue Wei's strategy to continue to promote the nationwide layout is still clear and firm. The company's main business of halogen products is still expected to maintain rapid and stable growth, and further expand its competitive advantage.
The investment and exploration of the food circle has gradually entered the harvest period, and the external service of the supply chain has created the second growth curve of performance
Focusing on the development strategy of "deeply cultivating the main business of duck neck and building food ecology", the company has successively invested in more than 50 food ecosystem enterprises and gradually entered the harvest period. In Q3 of 2021, Juewei transferred part of the equity of hefulaomian and Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) listed, contributing a total investment income of 210 million yuan. In addition to the financial investment income, we also look forward to the company's success in building a collaborative food platform in the future, so as to break through the bottleneck of duck neck's main business and enrich the business matrix. In addition, the company has gradually opened its supply chain services. Under the background of the rapid growth of the national cold chain market, the perfect supply chain business is developing rapidly, which is expected to create a new growth curve of the company.
Investment advice and profit forecast
We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.598/79.22/9.536 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25.05/20.07/20.37%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.023/11.65/1.391 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.67/1.90/2.26 yuan and PE of 32 / 28 / 23x. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Upstream raw material price fluctuations, store expansion less than expected, food safety problems, etc.
