\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 979 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) )
Event: the company released the 2021 performance express. For the whole year of 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 160643 billion yuan (Unaudited, the same below), with a year-on-year increase of 23.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.35%; The basic earnings per share was 1.16 yuan / share, a year-on-year decrease of 20.55%.
The increase of carry forward brings about the growth of operating income, the decline of gross profit margin, the decrease of investment income and other factors lead to the pressure of profit. For the whole year of 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 160643 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.93%; The total profit was 22.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.35%. The company’s annual operating income increased rapidly, mainly due to the increase in the area of project completion, delivery and carry over, which led to the increase in the carry over income of real estate business. This year’s increase in income but no increase in profit is mainly due to: 1) affected by the downward market, the gross profit margin carried forward by real estate business decreased year-on-year; 2) The provision for asset impairment and credit impairment totaled 4.372 billion yuan, reducing the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company by 3.456 billion yuan in 2021; 3) The investment income decreased, and the investment income generated by the company’s transfer of subsidiaries decreased by 2.445 billion yuan year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.049 billion yuan. In terms of quarters, the operating profit margin in 2021 showed an inverted V-shape. It fell slightly and gradually stabilized since the second quarter. As of the fourth quarter, the operating profit margin was 14.22%, higher than 11.87% at the beginning of the year.
The sales volume and price have maintained double-digit growth, and the leading position of the industry is stable. In 2021, the company achieved a contract amount of 326834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.73%, a contract area of 146447 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, the annual average sales price was 2231756 yuan / square meter, a slight decrease of 0.03% over the same period, and the growth of sales scale was at the leading level in the industry. The company’s annual sales volume ranked seventh in the list of Kerry, up three places from the previous year. Affected by the market downturn, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) failed to achieve the sales target of 330 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, but the company still ranks among the industry leaders. The annual sales area and amount have a year-on-year growth rate of more than 17%. It is one of the few enterprises to achieve double-digit growth in sales price.
The intensity of land acquisition leads the industry and actively layout core cities. Affected by the change from hot to cold in the land market, the number of new land added by the company this year showed a change from more at the beginning to less at the end. In the first half of the year, the company used diversified investment methods to obtain 63 cases of land. Since the second half of the year, the land investment has slowed down slightly, with a total of 49 cases of land. On the whole, the land acquisition intensity of the company in this year was higher than that of other real estate enterprises, and the new construction area of soil storage in the whole year was 15.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.54%; The total land price was 215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.82%; The average price of land acquisition was 13862 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 48.57%. The company pursues high-quality endogenous growth, focuses on regional focus and urban deep cultivation, and gives priority to core cities with high energy levels. The invested plots are located in economically developed eastern coastal areas, or in inland provincial capitals or urban development core circles in central and Western China.
The financing channels are unobstructed and the cost is gradually reduced. In 2021, the company issued 9 ultra short financing bonds to meet the capital needs of its operation and development. Since the fourth quarter, the financing environment has continued to improve. The company issued two medium-term notes in November 2021 and January 2022 respectively. Both issues included three-year and five-year notes, with a total issuance scale of 4.29 billion yuan. The issuance interest rates of three-year notes were 3.23% and 2.89% respectively, and the issuance interest rates of five-year notes were 3.55% and 3.30%, Financing costs have gradually decreased.
Investment suggestion: the company has a leading sales growth rate in the industry, obvious financing advantages, development and operation go hand in hand, and a large number of high-quality soil reserves are used as safety pads. We expect the company’s earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.31 yuan / share, 1.40 yuan / share and 1.54 yuan / share respectively. Calculated by the closing price of 13.92 yuan on March 1, the corresponding P / E ratios are 10.6 times, 9.9 times and 9.0 times respectively. We are optimistic about the long-term performance of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the sales deregulation is less than expected and the financing environment fluctuates.
