\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
The company issued a performance express, and achieved a revenue of 3.88 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 18.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million, a year-on-year increase of + 18.5%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 500 million, a year-on-year increase of + 11.1%. Among them, 4q21 achieved a revenue of 870 million, a year-on-year increase of + 19.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4%; Deduct non net profit of 70 million, a year-on-year increase of - 23.5%.
Key points supporting rating
All food production bases tap the potential to improve production capacity, the catering business continues to improve, and constantly develop new stores. (1) The company's 1q-4q achieved revenue growth of + 29% / + 33% / + 10% / + 20% respectively. The rapid growth of 4q came from the coordinated development of catering and food industries, with positive growth contribution at the same time. (2) In the quick-frozen sector, the quick-frozen production line of Meizhou base has released capacity in 4q. We judge that the continuous development of capacity supply + quick-frozen market will bring high growth. (3) For the moon cake business, the Mid Autumn Festival in the 21st year is 10 days ahead of the same period in the 20th year, which is not conducive to the early publicity; However, the contract liability of 3q is 276 million, which is 90 million higher than 189 million of 3q20, and the inventory is 300 million, which is 90 million higher than 210 million of 3q20. We judge that some moon cake revenue is caused by the confirmation and settlement of 4q. Moon cake is the company's trump card product. In the case of depressed festival gifts in 2021, we judge that the company's sales are better than the industry average. (4) Catering business: with the increasingly scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control, the company's catering business continued to improve, and the company continued to develop new catering stores, and the overall performance of catering business increased year-on-year. According to the performance commitment disclosed during the acquisition of taotaoju catering, taotaoju's net profit in 2022 will not be less than 34.04 million yuan.
4q deducted non net interest rate -1pct, and the profit declined. 4q's net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million, a year-on-year increase of + 1.4%; Deduct non net profit of 70 million, a year-on-year increase of - 23.5%. The non recurring profit and loss is 48.25 million yuan. We speculate that it is related to the accounting treatment and various subsidies such as the merger and acquisition of taotaoju. From the perspective of the profit of the main business, there is little change in the operation level of catering and food, and there is no big change in the cost side. We infer that there is no significant change in the profit level.
1q22 catering and food work together to achieve a "good start". (1) the dinner on New Year's Eve and other activities stimulated consumers during the 22 Spring Festival holiday. According to the company's official account, the total number of restaurants and restaurants has exceeded 210 thousand passengers. Special purchases for the Spring Festival, rice cake, cakes and so on, and 1Q22, are sold mainly in the form of pot, rice cake, cakes, and preserved products. The official account shows that the sales of the products are prosperous, and the group's overall business performance is "a good start". 1Q22 (3) From the perspective of the whole year, taotaoju consolidated table and Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) quickly opened stores in catering business, promoting the overall rapid development; Several major bases of the food business continued to tap the potential of technological transformation, improve production capacity, reduce costs and increase efficiency, strictly control costs, and help maintain the growth of sales performance.
Valuation
We adjusted the profit forecast according to the performance. It is estimated that the EPS in 21-23 years will be 0.97/1.18/1.41 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.5% / + 21.3% / + 19.4%. Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The increase of raw material cost exceeded expectations; The impact of repeated epidemic on catering business; The output of the project is less than expected; Food safety risks; Goodwill impairment risk.
