\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 043 Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) )
The high growth of income exceeded the expectation, and the deduction of Non Profits met the expectation. On February 24, the company released the performance express for 2021, which is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 716 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 77.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 588 million yuan after deduction of non profits, a year-on-year increase of + 41.2%. According to this calculation, the company’s 21q4 achieved a revenue of RMB 3.187 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 21.4%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 193 million, a year-on-year increase of – 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 203 million after deduction, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%.
The channel is the king, small B makes great efforts, and the decorative materials have a high growth. According to the performance express, the business revenue of decorative materials in 2021 was about 6.656 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 53.2%, mainly benefiting from: (1) deepening the operation mechanism of the branch, fully introducing the company’s marketing system into the sales branch by the end of 2018, successively establishing and fine managing the nine branches from 2020 to 2021, implementing channel sinking and intensive distribution in the mature market, and increasing blank development in the peripheral market; (2) Small B continues to promote, focusing on promoting dealers to develop channels for furniture factories. As of November 2021, dealers have signed supply contracts with more than 5000 local small and medium-sized furniture factories, which has a large growth space in the future. The business revenue of furniture factory of 21h1 company is 900 million +, with a year-on-year increase of + 125%. We expect to continue the high growth throughout the year. In addition, the company simultaneously develops the channels of home decoration companies and engineering channels, and actively cultivates future growth points.
The customized home mode is established, and retail + engineering two wheel drive. The performance express shows that in 2021, the company’s customized home business revenue was about 2.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.1%; Among them, the revenue of the engineering sector (Yufeng Hantang) was about 1.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.3%. (1) The retail end continued to make efforts to build a “whole house customization + floor + wooden door” product system. In 21h1, the retail revenue of the headquarters was 330 million yuan, of which the whole house customization revenue was 155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 134%, and the floor was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52%. We expect to continue the high growth in the second half of the year; (2) The project end completed performance gambling, and 21h2 was relatively under pressure: the revenue of Yufeng Hantang 21h1 and 21h2 were + 67.9% and 21.1% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate of 21h2 slowed down due to the decline of real estate and the rise of raw materials; In the whole year, Yufeng Hantang achieved a net profit of 142 million and completed its performance commitment (140 million).
Non recurring profits and losses and equity incentive fees have a great impact
From the perspective of the whole year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 716 million yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 588 million yuan, which were slightly higher than the median value of the performance forecast. On the one hand, it benefited from the high growth of income, but it was also faced with the year-on-year decline of gross profit margin caused by the rise in the price of raw materials such as adhesive and decorative paper, and the impact of equity incentive expenses on the net profit of about 40.28 million yuan in 2021. On the other hand, the impact of non recurring profits and losses on the net profit is about 128 million yuan, which is mainly due to the profit and loss of 117 million fair value changes caused by the company’s holding of natural home shares. In 2020, the amount is – 93.24 million yuan, and the chairman needs to withdraw share payment expenses for the shares rewarded by employees of listed companies, affecting the net profit of 48 million yuan. In the fourth quarter alone, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non return was 203 million yuan, of which Yufeng Han Tang concentrated on contributing performance at the end of the year. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non return except Han Tang is about 89 million yuan, which is mainly affected by incentive fees.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 716 million yuan, 821 million yuan and 1001 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 13X, 12x and 10x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the operation mechanism and channel expansion of the branch are not as expected; Risks of real estate policy regulation.
