\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Event: on February 27, the company announced that the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was RMB 6.978/1.193 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 40.7% / 46.9% respectively.
Regional expansion and channel sinking have resulted in high annual income growth and smoothed quarterly fluctuations. 1) In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.7%. On the one hand, it benefited from the low base effect. On the other hand, under the background of high industry outlook + cost war cooling, the company accelerated regional expansion and channel sinking to contribute to the increase of revenue, which is reflected in the year-on-year increase of revenue in Guangdong, East China and southwest in 2021, The number of dealers / outlets was + 45% / 74% year-on-year respectively. 2) In the single quarter of 21q1-q4, the revenue was RMB 17.11/19.71/18.78/1.418 billion respectively, and the quarterly fluctuation was reduced, mainly because the company controlled the delivery rhythm and smoothed it.
In the stage of nationalization, the income is large, the gross sales difference is improved, and the profit is increased. 1) Gross profit margin: it was 44.4% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.2pct, and a year-on-year increase of + 0.7pct after excluding freight adjustment factors, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of core single product “big gold bottle” and the reduction of unit cost caused by locking pet price in advance. 2) Expense rate: the sales expense rate in 2021 was 19.61%, with a year-on-year rate of – 1.4pct. If the year-on-year rate of + 1.4pct after excluding the freight adjustment factor, it is mainly due to the increase of product publicity. We believe that we should pay more attention to the increase of market share and increase the cost, which is conducive to shaping the brand strength. 3) Net interest rate: it was 17.1% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.7pct, mainly due to the improvement of gross sales difference and the income from changes in fair value contributed by bank financial management of more than 100 million yuan.
Prospect: a leap from channel thrust to product innovation. 1) Channel thrust: Based on the regional market structure and number of outlets of Red Bull, the company will accelerate the penetration of dealers and terminals and lay an important foundation for nationalization in the next five years. 2) Product innovation: we believe that 2022 may be the year of the company’s products. On the one hand, the internal fission of products, 0 sugar + “she can” positioning white-collar + female consumer groups, will launch bubble energy drinks in 2022. Overseas experience shows that the internal fission of energy drinks has a significant boost to income; On the other hand, it has expanded outside the category. At present, there are oil Citrus Lemon tea + big coffee latte. Sports drinks will be launched in 2022. The product properties are close to energy drinks, and it is expected to replicate the experience of “Dongpeng special drink”.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.485/19.192344 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.5% / 29.2% / 22.1%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.71/4.80/5.86, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 47 / 36 / 30x. The average PE of A-share comparable companies in 22 years is 38x (wind unanimously expected), but considering that the company has scarce high growth, it maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies beyond expectations, industry demand declines, food safety problems, etc.
