\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 680 Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) )
The company released the 2021 performance express, and the annual performance increased by 15.34% according to preliminary accounting. The company's quarterly profit recovered month on month, the production capacity expanded rapidly, and the market share is expected to be further improved; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
The increase of 15.34% in the performance of the express report in 2021 is in line with the expectation: the company released the performance express report in 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 257 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, deducting the non net profit of 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.16%. According to the calculation of the performance express, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 137 million yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 27.94% and a month on month increase of 233.58%; Deduct 130 million yuan of non-profit, an increase of 29.64% year-on-year and 222.66% month on month. The company's forecast performance is in line with expectations.
Profitability improved significantly month on month: under the influence of the imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial chain, the price of EVA particles rose sharply during the year. Affected by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, the company's net profit margin decreased by 6.78 percentage points to 8.30% year-on-year in 2021. With the significant decline of EVA particle price in 2021q4, the company's fourth quarter net profit margin increased by 7.26 percentage points to 12.44% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.21 percentage points. We expect the company's 2021q4 single average profit is expected to significantly exceed 1 yuan / square meter.
The demand for PV installation is expected to be released: we expect the global PV installation demand to be about 220gw and 270gw respectively from 2022 to 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 40% and 23% respectively. The demand for photovoltaic adhesive film is expected to grow with the growth of the demand for photovoltaic modules. It is estimated that the demand for photovoltaic adhesive film from 2022 to 2023 will be 2.634 billion square meters and 3.186 billion square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.13% and 22.73% respectively.
The production capacity is expanding rapidly, and the market share is expected to be further improved: the production capacity of the company is expected to reach about 600 million square meters from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022; Recently, the company has launched a new round of production expansion, and plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 694 million yuan and invest in a total of 350 million square meters of new production capacity in Shangrao, Jiangxi and Yancheng, Jiangsu. In addition, Taizhou haiyouwei, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and Taizhou Haineng signed the investment agreement for photovoltaic packaging material expansion project, which plans to invest 200 million yuan to build photovoltaic packaging film supporting 5-10gw photovoltaic modules with annual production capacity, accelerate the construction of new production capacity, and is expected to support the rapid increase of the company's market share.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's performance express and the industry's supply and demand, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to 3.06/7.02/9.34 yuan (the original forecast data was 2.83/7.02/9.34 yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 75.6/33.0/24.8 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The impact of power and production restriction exceeds expectations; The decline in raw material costs did not meet expectations; International trade friction risk; Technical iteration risk; Price competition exceeds expectations; Policies fail to meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
