Key points:
China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sales increased rapidly, and the sales volume remained high in January, with a good start
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid January 2022 was 431000 (+ 136%), a month on month decrease of 18.6%, and the monthly sales volume corresponds to the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of 17.1%.
In the middle of January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles remained high and had a good start. The month on month decrease in sales in January is a normal seasonal fluctuation, and the month on month decrease is small (compared with the same period in previous years). The following February will be the off-season of the new energy vehicle market.
The China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will be 5 million (+ 42.0%) in the middle of 2022, which will still maintain a high-speed growth, and the prediction of the passenger association is higher. At the current time point, affected by variables such as (1) declining subsidies, (2) rising prices of new energy vehicles, and (3) unstable supply chain, the market is uncertain and lack of confidence in the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022. Follow up data verification is urgently needed. The first quarter data will be released in April at the earliest, and the market will form a clear and consistent expectation for the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022.
The decline of European subsidies led to the decline of 2021q3 sales month on month. However, under the influence of year-end impulse, 2021q4 sales still hit a record high; In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Germany fell sharply month on month, slightly weak
According to the data of European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Europe (EU + EFTA + UK) registered 685000 new energy vehicles in 2021q4, with a month on month increase of 24.7%, including 417000 pure electric vehicles, with a month on month increase of 35.0%, and 267000 plug-in hybrid vehicles, with a month on month increase of 11.5%.
The overall sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe showed a steady growth trend. The decline in subsidies led to a decline in 2021q3 sales month on month. However, under the influence of year-end impulse, 2021q4 sales still hit a record high. The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the European market accounts for a relatively high proportion. Driven by the policy, the vehicle enterprises rush to “install plug-in” for hybrid and fuel models. However, the recent policy adjustment is more biased towards pure electric vehicles, so as to effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions. After the policy adjustment, the sales proportion of pure electric vehicles has increased.
Germany is an important place for European automobile industry and a wind vane for the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe. According to the data of the German Ministry of transport (KBA), 40000 new electric vehicles (+ 7.8%) were registered in Germany in January 2022, with a month on month decrease of 51.0%. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Germany fell sharply month on month, which was significantly weaker than that in China and the United States, showing a slight weakness, which needs to be followed up.
Investment advice
China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile production and sales are booming, and the industrial chain is booming. In addition, it should also be noted that the foreign new energy vehicle market has a huge space, and the growth rate is also very fast in recent years: European car companies have stepped up the transformation of new energy vehicles under the world’s most stringent vehicle emission standards, and Biden’s attitude towards new energy is earth shaking compared with his predecessor, and the American Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has ushered in a long lost policy dividend. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies of power batteries and lithium battery materials that can enter the international supply chain. These companies can benefit from the large volume of foreign markets. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently;
Intensified competition in the new energy vehicle industry; Technology boom spawned bubbles.
