This week’s opinion update:
“Steady growth” will gradually enter the verification stage and embrace the historic opportunity of public raised REITs of infrastructure: according to the rhythm of resumption of work and production, the actual demand in the downstream will be further clarified in March. With the continuous disclosure of macro data, the “steady growth” policy will gradually enter the verification period. We re emphasize our confidence in the acceleration of infrastructure investment throughout the year. REITs will be an important variable in the source of capital for infrastructure investment. At present, nearly 100 REITs projects are in the substantive promotion stage. Firmly optimistic about the “steady growth” sector and enterprises with infrastructure operation assets.
Affordable housing ushers in the accelerated construction period and attaches importance to investment opportunities for prefabricated buildings: on February 24, Wang Menghui, Minister of housing and urban rural development, said that the supply of affordable rental housing will be greatly increased in 2022, and 2.4 million units are planned to be built nationwide, compared with 942000 units in 2021. We issued the “affordable rental housing:
In the article “major development opportunities for green and prefabricated buildings”, it is clear that affordable housing will be the key development direction during the 14th Five Year Plan period. During this period, the country will add more than 8 million affordable rental housing units (rooms), which is expected to continue to drive the output scale of the prefabricated industry and lead the industry to enter a benign development stage for a long time.
The time point for the layout of consumer building materials is approaching, and we are still optimistic about the follow-up market of glass: with the real estate policy on the supply side and demand side, the sales of the real estate industry may usher in the bottom of this cycle. However, policy transmission still needs time. If the real estate sales data is observed to pick up in the later stage, the inflection point of the fundamentals of the real estate chain can be established, and the existing business risks of building materials enterprises will also be effectively mitigated. We are optimistic about the consumer building materials sector and enterprises with smooth growth logic. Minister of housing and urban rural development Wang Menghui once again stressed that “ensuring the delivery of buildings, people’s livelihood and stability”. With the marginal relaxation of real estate policy and the further acceleration of completion and delivery, it will support the demand for glass.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was – 5.91%, of which ceramic sector increased the most (+ 1.71%), and other decorative materials sector decreased the most (- 10.64%); This week, CITIC construction index was – 6.52%, with the smallest decline (- 3.06%) in construction and decoration sector and the largest decline (- 9.15%) in infrastructure construction sector; This week, the average increase of infrastructure public offering REITs was – 6.64% (arithmetic average). Among them, Zhejiang merchants, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo REIT market performance ranked first (- 3.40%), and Wells Fargo’s first water REIT fell the most (- 10.48%).
High frequency data (2.19-2.25): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 508 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of -0.44%; The storage capacity ratio was 65.94% and the chain ratio was -0.87pct; Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2382 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.43%; The inventory was 46.29 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of + 8.28%. The average price of 3.2mm and 2mm photovoltaic glass was 25 yuan and 19.20 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month; Glass fiber: this week, the price of winding direct yarn is 6400 yuan / ton, and the price of G75 electronic yarn is 11250 yuan / ton, which is the same month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The purchasing point of consumer building materials is approaching (attention is recommended: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: capital construction public offering REITs brings revaluation of sector value (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.).
Preferred portfolio: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.5xpb, revaluation of stock operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (15xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the trend of emission reduction), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (10xpe, performance elasticity of float glass and valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (24xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
