This week’s view
Steel industry: firmly optimistic about steel demand under steady growth
As of February 25, the five major varieties of thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod reported 4869 yuan / ton, 4969 yuan / ton, 5154 yuan / ton, 5640 yuan / ton and 5051 yuan / ton respectively this week. The week on month ratio decreased by 1.1%, 0.8%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. In terms of social inventory, on February 25, the social inventory was 17.569 million tons, an increase of 863000 tons on a weekly basis.
The gross profit per ton of steel has narrowed. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod was 448 yuan, 477 yuan, 423 yuan, 501 yuan and 738 yuan respectively, down 79 yuan, 67 yuan, 49 yuan, 52 yuan and 90 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coal are relatively stable in terms of fundamentals and policy supervision, but the periodic demand recovery has not yet reached the conventional level, and the steel price shows a volatile trend. The Paralympic Games and the two sessions will be held soon, which may slow down the resumption of work. However, we believe that the tone of steady growth throughout the year remains unchanged, a large number of manufacturing and construction demand will still be released, and steel is expected to gradually usher in strong demand.
In the field of infrastructure construction, the word “stability” of economy will take the lead in 2022, and all localities are expected to accelerate the construction of underground pipe network and major water conservancy and gas pipeline projects. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
In addition, our first steel subdivision high-end variety, electrical steel, is the core magnetic material driving modern industry. In particular, high-grade non oriented electrical steel for new energy vehicles has extremely high technical barriers. Baosteel and Shougang master the core technology. Because new energy vehicles can only use high-grade non oriented silicon steel instead of all varieties. It is estimated that the proportion of non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles will increase to 17% – 20% in 2021.
In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
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Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) . Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Industry: the performance has been gradually realized, and the spot prices of rare earth and lithium have also reached a record high. Based on the fundamentals of supply and demand and inventory in the next half year, the price is expected to continue to rise. We are optimistic about the valuation and repair market of rare earth and lithium sector
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2710 / ton this week, up 0%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 415500 yuan / ton, up 11.54%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 464000 yuan / ton, up 5.94%. Rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 1.1 million yuan / ton, 3.13 million yuan / ton and 15.25 million yuan / ton this week, up 0.46%, – 0.32% and 1.67% respectively. The spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy continues to be tight, and the state of continuous low inventory in the industrial chain will remain. Driven by the replenishment of inventory by downstream enterprises, we expect the price center of lithium and rare earth to continue to rise;
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices fell 1.67% this week to close at 70690 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price fell 1.44% to close at 22510 yuan / ton. This week’s conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become the biggest factor affecting the market. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will directly affect Russia’s natural gas and crude oil exports to Europe, while the European energy structure is highly dependent on Russia, which will further raise the European energy price. At present, the TTF natural gas price has risen again to 91.5 euros, an increase of about 30% this week, There is a possibility of further production reduction in electrolytic aluminum in Europe; Secondly, Russia is also an important source of primary aluminum supply in Europe. In 2021, Russia exported about 1.2 million tons of primary aluminum to Europe, while the total output of electrolytic aluminum in Europe in the first half of 2021 was only 3.73 million tons. If Russia’s electrolytic aluminum export is greatly affected, it will further stimulate the rise of aluminum price. But on the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also drag the global economy into the stagflation cycle more quickly, aggravating the market’s concerns about the weakening of the macro economy.
At present, the average profit of China’s simulated electrolytic aluminum industry has reached 5085 yuan / ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum has continued to improve. We believe that the possibility of aluminum price falling in the short term is very small, while the cost side of China’s coal price has been limited to a reasonable range, and the profit sustainability of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is expected to exceed market expectations.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 111 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) 、 Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) 、 Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 6016 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 07 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
