Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.96%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.83 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. China’s consumption is expected to be more stable in the short term as the epidemic situation and the policy of “accurate prevention and control” return to the market in the future. Suggestions: ① gold jewelry: in the short term, the delayed marriage just needs to be released to stimulate the consumption of gold jewelry, and the sales of gold jewelry increased strongly during the Spring Festival holiday; In the medium and long term, the intensification of geopolitical frictions has driven the continuous rise of gold price, and the increase of penetration in daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios has driven the steady expansion of industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated industry integration in the past two years, leading jewelry enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about leading gold jewelry enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (February 21-february 27), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.96%, and the retail trade index lost 1.83 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 21st in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.18% and the commercial retail index has fallen by 4.96%. The Shenwan commercial retail index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.22 percentage points, ranking 15th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods were + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold fell $8.99 to $188931/oz, and silver rose $0.35 to $24.26/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in January 2022, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 13.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 28%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%. In terms of cosmetics, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in January, while Chinese brands love fire and Mao Geping performed better; In terms of jewelry, domestic, foreign and Hong Kong funded brands all have ups and downs, and domestic brands designcircles, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) , Caibai perform better.
Important announcements of listed companies: China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) issue the announcement of reduction of holdings Lafang China Co.Ltd(603630) board of directors change Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) release performance express.
Important events in the industry: ① the new regulations on the protection of minors in Shanghai restrict minors from medical beauty; ② The epidemic prevention and control was normalized, and the performance of the beauty industry rebounded; ③ New regulations on monitoring and management of adverse reactions to cosmetics were issued.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
