Event: on February 26, the banking wealth management registration and custody Center released the annual report of Bank Of China Limited(601988) financial management market (2021). The report shows that in 2021, the rectification of the stock of bank financial management business was basically completed, the product structure continued to improve, the proportion of standardized asset allocation increased steadily, the average leverage ratio of products was stable, and the bank financial management market achieved stable and healthy development. Specifically:
Issuance and survival scale of financial products: the growth of financial scale was accelerated, and the survival balance was 29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 12.14%. In 2021, a total of 319 banking institutions and 21 wealth management companies in China issued 47600 new wealth management products, a year-on-year decrease of 21400; A total of 122.19 trillion yuan was raised. In the second half of the year, benefiting from the basically completed system construction and the increased volatility of the equity market, the scale of bank financial management increased rapidly. By the end of 2021, there were 36300 existing products, a slight decrease over the same period last year; The remaining balance was RMB 29 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 12.14% (the remaining scale of financial products reached a year-on-year increase of 5.37% at the end of June last year). It is expected that with the completion of system construction and system construction, the follow-up financial management business will enter a period of rapid development, and the scale of financial management is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future.
Financial product issuers: nearly 60% of the products of financial subsidiaries exist, and unlicensed small and medium-sized banks participate through consignment. (1) The specialized operation of financial management subsidiaries has become the main force in the operation of financial products: since the release of the new financial management regulations, the supervision has approved the preparation of 29 Financial Management subsidiaries and the opening of 24 financial management subsidiaries. By the end of 2021, the existing scale of wealth management company products accounted for 59.28% of the whole market, and all of them were net worth products. (2) Small and medium-sized banks participate in financial management business through consignment, enriching product sales channels. Limited by the ability of asset management and investment research, some small and medium-sized banks mainly give full play to their advantages in sales channels and customer resources to build a supermarket for financial products and become an important force for the consignment of financial products. 21 financial management companies with existing products cooperated with consignment institutions, and the balance of consignment products was 17.07 trillion; On average, each wealth management company has about 14 cooperative sales agencies (mainly banks and other wealth management companies).
Bank financial product structure: the product structure has improved significantly, and bank financial management has entered the era of net worth management. (1) Lengthening the average term: in 2021, the weighted average term of new closed-end products in the whole market showed an upward trend, 481 days in December, an increase of 93.91% year-on-year. (2) The survival scale and proportion of fixed income financial products are on the rise. By the end of 2021, the existing balance of fixed income financial products was 26.78 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22.80%, accounting for 92.34% of the existing balance of all financial products. (3) The survival scale and proportion of open financial products are on the rise. By the end of 2021, the existing balance of open financial products was 23.78 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 16.63%, accounting for 82% of the existing balance of all financial products, an increase of 3.15 PCT over the same period last year. (4) The degree of net worth transformation of financial products continued to improve. By the end of 2021, the existing scale of net worth financial products was 26.96 trillion, accounting for 92.97%, an increase of 25.70 PCT over the same period last year; The balance of non net worth products was 2.04 trillion, a significant decrease of 16.39 trillion compared with that before the release of the new asset management regulations. Bank financial management has entered the era of net worth management.
Bank financial allocation structure: the proportion of standardized asset allocation increased steadily, and the average leverage ratio of products was stable. In recent years, the scale and proportion of bond assets allocated by financial products have been rising, and non-standard assets have continued to decline. At the end of 2021, the balance of financial products invested in bonds, non standardized debt assets and equity assets was 21.33 trillion, 2.62 trillion and 1.02 trillion respectively, accounting for 68.4%, 8.4% and 3.3% of the total investment assets respectively; Compared with the end of 2020, + 4.1pct, – 6.6pct, – 1.5pct respectively. The investment leverage ratio remained stable. At the end of 2021, the average leverage ratio of financial products was 107.37%, a decrease of 3.63 PCT compared with the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: the transition period of the new asset management regulations is over, and the rectification of stock products is basically completed. It is expected that with the completion of system construction and system construction, the follow-up financial management business will enter a period of rapid development. We believe that from the perspective of policy, the steady growth policy is expected to continue to make efforts in real estate and infrastructure investment and drive the expected repair of the market. From a fundamental point of view, the performance of the industry is uncertain, and the potential adverse pressure is small. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.64 times the static Pb valuation, at an all-time low. We believe that the credit easing policy continues to work and the valuation repair market of the banking sector is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to select banks with customer base, sales channels, product service system and other first mover advantages in the field of wealth management (such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality banks with regional advantages and market-oriented systems and mechanisms ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.).
Risk tip: the economic stall and downturn lead to the deterioration of asset quality; Unexpected changes in regulatory policies, etc.
