Core view
This week, the trading volume of new houses and second-hand houses continued to grow positively month on month and decreased year on year. The number of new houses sold in 47 cities this week was 39000, up 2.4% month on month and down 37.6% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 24000, an increase of 13.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities increased by – 10.8%, + 32.3% and + 1.1% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 20.5%, – 18.2% and – 48.4% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 11000, down 14.0% month on month and 37.2% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 10000, an increase of 14.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 37.2%; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by + 22.7%, + 11.9% and + 10.5% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 45.3%, – 28.3% and – 40.3% respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses decreased, and the decontamination cycle increased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.019 million units, down 0.2% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 14.0 months, up 0.2 months month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 553000 units, with no significant change compared with the same period last month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. The decontamination cycle was 9.8 months, with a month on month increase of 0.2 months; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities is 258000 units, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The de stocking cycle is 8.4 months, with an increase of 0.2 months on a month on month basis. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities is 206000 units, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The de stocking cycle is 10.2 months, with an increase of 0.2 months on a month on month basis. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities is 90000 units, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The de stocking cycle is 16.0 months, with no significant change on a month on month basis.
The overall land market volume and price rose simultaneously, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 226, with a month on month increase of 15.3% and a year-on-year increase of 17.7%; The planned construction area of the traded land was 14.99 million square meters, up 49.7% month on month and 20.2% year-on-year; The total land transaction price was 59.1 billion yuan, up 278.8% month on month and 58.5% year-on-year; The average floor price of land traded was 3941 yuan / square meter, up 153.0% month on month and 31.9% year-on-year; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 3.87%, down 31.5% month on month and 67.1% year-on-year.
Investment advice
Recently, various tier cities have relaxed their real estate regulation to varying degrees, including the first tier city Guangzhou, which has reduced the mortgage interest rate by 20bp, and the number of third and fourth tier cities that have reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund loans or commercial loans has increased to 11, including Heze, Chongqing, Ganzhou, Foshan, Zhumadian, Bengbu, Nantong, Beihai, Zigong, Nanning and Fuzhou, However, we believe that the current policy is mainly focused on the third and fourth tier cities, which has limited effect on boosting market sentiment. We still need to pay attention to the follow-up of high-energy cities in the follow-up. From the supply side, the performance of Beijing’s first round of centralized land auction has warmed up. Although half of the land plots are still sold at the base price, there are also land plots that touch the price limit, and the return and active participation of brand real estate enterprises also show that the investment enthusiasm of enterprises is being repaired. The performance of this round of land auction in Beijing has a certain role in boosting the confidence of the land market this year. As the industry as a whole is still at a low ebb, we believe that there will be “differentiation” in the centralized land supply: the land market in first tier cities may take the lead in warming up, and the state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in large-scale real estate enterprises have begun to actively take land, while other cities and real estate enterprises still need some time to repair. At the same time, we see that Qingdao announced that the centralized land auction in 2022 will be adjusted to four batches. We believe that more cities may refer to increasing the number of land supply in the future to smooth the sharp fluctuations in the market. We believe that since the real estate has not recovered significantly, the policies at both ends of supply and demand are still expected to be further substantially loosened, including accelerating the construction of affordable housing, relaxing the management of pre-sale funds and optimizing the three red lines. The time point of policy adjustment will be as early as the general direction of the two sessions in March or after the data of the Bureau of statistics and statistics from January to February. At this stage, favorable policies are coming one after another. We believe that we still need to wait for the follow-up of higher-level cities to have substantive signal significance. We maintain the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period”. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
