This week's topic
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, which proposed that by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. This week, we analyzed the development of energy storage in combination with relevant policies.
Core view
Why develop energy storage: balancing power supply and demand fluctuations
The persistence of traditional energy generation, the uncertainty of new energy generation and the discontinuity of power demand determine that the fluctuation of power supply and demand persists, and energy storage can stabilize the fluctuation of power supply and demand. Under the general trend of China's energy transformation, the role of energy storage is becoming increasingly prominent, and its application scope involves all links of generation, transmission, distribution and utilization. On the power generation side, the main function of energy storage is to assist frequency modulation, make the power supply more controllable, stabilize the volatility of new energy power generation and reduce energy waste, so as to promote the consumption of new energy; On the power grid side, energy storage can alleviate line congestion and effectively reduce the cost of network loss; On the power consumption side, the energy storage system can realize peak valley price difference arbitrage through Valley charging and peak discharge, and reduce power consumption spikes, so as to save capacity and electricity charges for large industrial users.
At the national level: energy storage policies have been issued frequently to lay the general tone of development
National energy storage related policies have been issued frequently. In March 2021, the 14th five year plan proposed to improve the consumption and storage capacity of clean energy, improve the transmission and distribution capacity to remote areas, promote the flexibility transformation of coal power, and accelerate the construction of pumped storage power stations and the large-scale application of new energy storage technologies. The medium and long term development plan for pumped storage (20212035) issued in September 2021 proposes that by 2025, the total scale of pumped storage will reach more than 62 million KW; By 2030, the total scale of pumped storage will reach about 120 million KW. On October 26, 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peaking before 2030, which pointed out that by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach more than 30 million KW. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, which proposed that by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application.
Local level: configuration requirements and subsidy policies are put forward to help the rapid development of the industry
From the planning, landscape development and construction plans and other documents issued by various provinces, many provinces have clearly put forward the requirements for energy storage. Specifically, the energy storage proportion of new energy allocation is mostly between 5% - 20%; Most of the configuration hours are 2 hours, and some provinces require 1 hour or 4 hours. In terms of subsidies, the basis and amount of subsidies vary greatly. All localities give corresponding subsidies according to different indicators such as discharge, total investment, capacity electricity price and peak shaving, and the price difference is very large.
Investment advice
In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, new energy represented by wind power and photovoltaic is developing rapidly, and the installed scale continues to rise. The state has intensively issued relevant favorable policies for energy storage and continued to optimize the consumption level of new energy. In the future, the scale of energy storage is expected to expand rapidly, comprehensively and deeply participate in the reform of the whole power industry chain, and balance the fluctuation of power supply and demand. In terms of specific targets, suggestions on energy storage operation targets are focused on [ Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) ] [ Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) ] [ Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) ] [ Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) ], suggestions on energy storage EPC targets are focused on [Southern Grid Technology], and suggestions on energy storage temperature control targets are focused on [ Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) ].
Risk tips: the policy promotion is less than expected, the industrial technological progress slows down, the power demand is less than expected, the growth of energy storage installed capacity is less than expected, and the progress of subsequent supporting policies in the energy storage industry is less than expected
