Industry core view:
Last week (from February 21, 2022 to February 27, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13%, the Shenwan food and beverage index rose and fell 3.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.76 percentage points, ranking 27th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan. All sub sectors of food and beverage fell last week except snacks (+ 1.98%). Baijiu, the Baijiu liquor market was generally callback last week, the Baijiu market was cold recently, dealers’ fancy sales release released the selling force. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Jinsha liquor industry started expansion projects. Baijiu Baijiu has strong sticky consumption, stable consumer demand, and rising potential energy. In terms of mass food, the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine last week led to a rise in Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices. Soybeans, sunflower seeds and their processed products are important raw materials for the mass food industry. The demand rigidity of mass food industry is strong, and it is easy to pass on cost pressure to consumers through price increase. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will further push up the cost pressure of mass food enterprises. The mass food industry may usher in a second price increase, and the downstream price increase logic is expected to be continuously verified. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (Baijiu): Liquor: high-end liquor has a higher growth certainty, and the growth of the high-end liquor is still enough. It is recommended to focus on the high-end and secondary liquor allocation opportunities; 1. 2) Beer: the process of high-end beer is accelerated, the performance of industry leaders is bright, and the long-term good trend is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to high-end beer leaders; 3) Popular food: the demand for popular food is rigid, and the cost drives the price increase logic of the popular food industry, which is expected to be continuously verified. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of popular food such as condiments and leisure snacks.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu sector fell 4.84%, of which Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (-5.66%), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (-5.79%) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (-6.08%) fell by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decreased by 5.66% and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) decreased by 4.28% Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor remained basically unchanged. In the past 20 years, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor was about 3200 yuan, which was at a high level. The price of Feitian bulk bottles increased slightly, from 2810 yuan to 2820 yuan. Maotai over 4 billion yuan sauce wine project was launched. On February 25, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) “14th five year plan” Maotai flavor liquor Xishui Tongmin phase I construction project and the centralized launching ceremony of major projects in Xishui County in the first quarter of 2022 were held in Hongqi village, Tongmin Town, Xishui County. It is reported that the total investment of the project is 4 billion 110 million yuan. After the completion of the project, it will enrich the product structure and enhance the market competitiveness, and promote the development of Guizhou Baijiu and supporting industries. Jinsha liquor: Jinsha 30 thousand tons of Baijiu flavor liquor expansion project started. In February 25th, the first major construction project in Bijie in 2022 was held at Jinsha County, Jinsha cellar wine Co., Ltd., the 30 thousand ton Baijiu flavor liquor extension project was held on the spot. Meanwhile, the 30 thousand tons of Baijiu flavor liquor extension project in Guizhou Jinsha cellar wine industry has also started. Wine practice: it is planned to plant 132500 mu of Organic Sorghum in Xishui throughout the year According to People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) Guizhou channel, in 2022, Xishui plans to plant 132500 mu of Organic Sorghum in 20 townships (streets) of the county (including 107500 mu of Maotai order area and 25000 mu of Xijiu company order area), so as to comprehensively promote the sustainable and healthy development of Organic Sorghum Industry, promote the increase of farmers’ production and income, and boost the revitalization of rural areas. At present, 66.25 tons of seeds and 11000 tons of organic fertilizer have been distributed free of charge. Jingzhi liquor industry: the prices of Jingzhi jingyangchun main products have been raised across the board. Recently, it was learned from the market that since February 25, the prices of Jingzhi jingyangchun main products have increased by 10-15%. Among them, the unified selling price of 39 degree jingyangchun (1 6) is 68 yuan / bottle and the group purchase price is 360 yuan / box; 33 degrees jingyangchun (1 6) has a unified price of 63 yuan / bottle and a group purchase price of 330 yuan / box; 49 degrees Jingzhi white stem, the unified selling price is 18 yuan / bottle; 55 degree 5L Jingzhi Laobaigan is priced at 129 yuan / barrel Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) : the annual production capacity of Wuling crude liquor has reached 2100 tons. On February 24, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) said on the investor interaction platform that the annual production capacity of Wuling liquor under the company has reached 2100 tons, mainly using the terminal direct sales mode. The company’s e-commerce marketing team is considering opening a Wuling liquor Jingdong self operated store with Jingdong self operated logo.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Beer: Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) : Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) released the annual performance express in 2021. It is estimated that the total operating revenue is about 4.538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.79%; The net profit was about 612 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.42%. In 2021, the sales volume of beer reached 1276300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.41%.
Condiment: Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) : on the evening of February 24, Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) released the annual performance express of 2021, which showed that the total operating revenue was 2.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%; The net profit was 742 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.53%; The basic earnings per share was 0.87 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.22% Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) said that during the reporting period, the repeated epidemic, the weak consumer market and the rising cost of bulk raw materials had multiple impacts on the company. The company responded by focusing on high-quality products, concentrating on market intensive cultivation and channel sinking, so as to ensure the steady progress of business and basically stable performance.
Dairy products: Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) : Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) said in the announcement that the company held the 18th meeting of the 7th board of directors and the 12th meeting of the 7th board of supervisors respectively, deliberated and adopted the Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) plan on share repurchase through centralized bidding transaction (hereinafter referred to as the repurchase plan), and the independent directors expressed their independent opinions on this matter. According to the repurchase plan, Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) the number of shares repurchased this time shall not be less than 3.2 million and not more than 4.8 million, the repurchase price shall not exceed 15 yuan / share, and the total repurchase fund is expected to not exceed 72 million yuan.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
