Core view
Macro: the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may aggravate the inflationary pressure in European and American countries. Abroad: on February 24, Russia took military action against Ukraine. The volatile situation may lead to the rise of international energy and food prices, which will further aggravate the inflationary pressure in the United States and European countries. China: the Ministry of housing and urban rural development said to maintain the continuity and stability of the regulation policies of the real estate market, promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and strive to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations.
Steel: the national development and Reform Commission regulates the prices of iron ore and coal, and the cost side of steel enterprises may benefit. This week, the output of rebar increased by 6.86% month on month, and the consumption increased by 46.78% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 68.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.28pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: the demand for new energy vehicles is rising, and the prices of lithium, cobalt and nickel are rising at the same time. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 415500 yuan / ton, a sharp increase of 11.54% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 464000 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 5.94% month on month. This week, MB standard cobalt rose slightly month on month, while Co3O4 rose slightly month on month. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $26105 / ton, up 6.55% month on month.
Industrial metals: after the Winter Olympics, aluminum processing enterprises in North China resumed production one after another. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in November, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 89% in December, and increased slightly by 0.93pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly month on month, while LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased slightly by 0.32% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month this week.
Kim: the situation in Ukraine deteriorated, and risk aversion pushed up the price of gold. This week, Comex gold price decreased slightly by 0.56% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold increased sharply by 13.83% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.97%, up slightly by 0.05pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is suggested to pay attention to listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) ( Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) ( Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ( Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , buy), and listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) ( Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) ( Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , not rated) Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated), Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) ( Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
