The core combination of the core combination of the following core combination: 60031 \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\416 , Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) , Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) , Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012)
Key combination of key combination of key combinations: Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) , Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059)
Suggested attention: Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187)
This week's topic:
The large-scale fan will be gradually deduced in 18-21 years. Take Sany Heavy energy as an example. In 2018, 2MW was the mainstream, about 90% of the fan business was 2MW, and the proportion of 2MW decreased to about 60% by 2019; By 2020, the proportion of 2MW fans will be only 7%. The same trend is fully reflected in Jinfeng, Yunda, Mingyang and Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) also. The large-scale wind turbine is an important driving force for wind power parity.
The trend of large-scale has a certain negative impact on fan parts: 1) if the price rise of rush assembly is not considered: on the whole, the procurement cost of various parts of Sany Heavy energy decreased by about 10.38% from 2017 to 2020. Among them, reducer, slewing ring, gear box, engine room cover, etc. have the smallest decline; The descending range is the largest in turn, namely the system, the main control system, the converter system, etc. From 2018 to 2020, the purchase cost of parts changed by + 11.14%, - 15.56% and - 4.51% respectively. 2) For example, excluding the factors of rush loading and price rise: the unit consumption of parts decreased by 18.36% from 2017 to 2020.
Under the trend of large-scale, the cost of most parts of the main engine has been significantly reduced. Sany Heavy energy decreased by 17.75% and 10.26% respectively from 2019 to 2020. If considering the price increase of rush installed parts of wind power, the decrease is 15.56% and 4.51%. The guided tariff of class I to class IV wind power will decrease by 12.35% and 12.20% in 2019. Because there are still subsidies, the actual decline is less than this range. Relying on large-scale, Sany Heavy energy has matched the reduction of wind turbine cost with the reduction of guided electricity price, and the gross profit margin has increased. The gross profit margin of the remaining fan companies has declined as a whole. We estimate that the fan manufacturers themselves have digested a certain pressure of bidding and price reduction.
We also calculated the influence of large-scale on tower / pile foundation. We use three dimensions to calculate and find that the influence of large-scale on tower / pile foundation is positive. Method 1: without considering the price factor, we calculate that the amount of single MW of tower is 655100 yuan in 2018 and 669700 yuan in 2019, a slight increase of 2.22%; The amount of single MW of pile foundation is 1547800 yuan in 2018 and 1483300 yuan in 2019, a slight decrease of 4.17%; Considering the price factor, the tower in 2019 will increase by 4.45% compared with 2018, while the pile foundation will decrease by 2.09%. At least in 20182019, the large-scale trend has not had a substantial impact on the amount of tower / pile foundation of single MW, and it is still positive for tower.
Method 2: Tower: without considering the price adjustment coefficient, from 2018 to 2021h1, the income of single MW tower is 65.57, 67.09, 71.74 and 736700 yuan respectively, and the CAGR is 3.96%; Considering the price adjustment coefficient, the CAGR is 1.07%, which is slightly reduced by 1.08% in 2021h1. Looking at the pile foundation, the cost per unit pile foundation is lower than that of method 1, mainly because we do not include the jacket in the calculation of method 2. We can see that the pile foundation is relatively benefited from large-scale. Regardless of the price adjustment coefficient, the income of single MW pile foundation increased from 1332400 in 2018 to 1884000 in 2021, with a CAGR of 12.24%; After considering the price adjustment coefficient, it was increased to 1828200, and the CAGR was 11.12%.
Method 3: after excluding outsourcing and price fluctuation factors, we calculated that the unit cost of tower has increased, with a cumulative decrease of 23.54% from 2018 to 2021h1, while the unit cost of pile foundation has increased by 22.51%.
Using the change of pile foundation / tower gross profit margin of Haili wind power as the verification means, we believe that the calculation results are reasonable: pile foundation: income per MW: increased by 37.21% in 20182021h1, and cost per MW: increased by 31.51% in 20182021h1; The gross profit margin increased by about 3 points; Tower: revenue per MW: increased by 3.23% in 20182021h1; cost per MW: decreased by 20.03% in 20182021h1; gross profit margin: about 21 points.
Finally: according to our calculation, the influence of large-scale on the use of flange is limited, especially the tower. From 2018 to 2019, the flange consumption of single MW tower of Haili wind power decreased from 8.15 tons to 7.74 tons, a decrease of only 4.92%, while the flange consumption of pile foundation decreased significantly, and the flange consumption of single MW pile foundation decreased by 78.79%. However, since the amount of flange of the tower is significantly larger than that of the pile foundation (at least 7x), we believe that the impact of large-scale fan on the flange is limited.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn or major policy changes, infrastructure and real estate investment fell sharply; Sino US trade frictions affect China's investment sentiment; The calculation is subjective and only for reference.
