Core view
[market performance] from February 21 to February 25, the CSI 300 index closed at 457342 points, down 1.31% in one week and 7.43% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 345141, down 1.12% in one week and 5.18% year to date; Among shenwanyi industries, power equipment, national defense and military industry, nonferrous metals and other sectors performed better, among which the transportation industry decreased by 2.36% in the week, ranking 18th; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has decreased by 0.94%, ranking No. 8; In terms of molecular industries, the top three performing sectors in the transportation industry are public transport (+ 1.50%), logistics (+ 0.46%) and shipping (- 2.27%).
[key information] in accordance with the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, in order to help the difficult industries in the service industry tide over the difficulties and resume development, with the consent of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of transport and other 14 departments, jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and issued six policies for the road, waterway and railway transportation industry Five targeted rescue support measures for the civil aviation industry and 10 inclusive rescue support measures for the service industry. (official website of the Chinese government)
[Key announcement] 1) Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited(600377) : the company’s total operating revenue in 2021 is expected to be 12.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.46%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.218 billion yuan, an increase of 71.17% year-on-year; 2) Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) : it is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company in 2021 will be 563223 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.42%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.69%.
[views of this week]
In January, the passenger and freight volume of air transportation decreased slightly year-on-year and increased slightly month on month, and the recovery trend is expected to continue. In January 2022, the passenger volume of civil aviation was 30 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.21% and a month on month increase of + 8.92%, a decrease of 44.74% compared with the same period in 2019; The volume of civil aviation cargo and mail transportation was 654000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.40% and a month on month increase of + 1.21%, a decrease of 2.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Since the second half of 2021, the covid-19 epidemic in China has shown a multi-point spread trend; In addition, the Spring Festival holiday and Winter Olympic Games in February 2022 have higher requirements for epidemic prevention and control; In this case, the year-on-year decline of civil aviation passenger transport and freight volume was less than 3%, and both achieved month on month growth, showing strong demand toughness; Subsequently, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the precise transformation of prevention and control policies, the demand recovery is expected to continue.
In January, the volume and price of the express industry rose simultaneously, and the profit center is expected to improve. In January 2022, the revenue of express business above Designated Size reached 91.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.73%; The single ticket income of express business above designated size was 10.45 yuan / ticket, a year-on-year increase of + 2.36%; The express business volume above Designated Size reached 8.774 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 3.30%; Tongda and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ‘s express business revenue, single ticket price and business volume increased by + 23.38%, – 0.08%, + 9.52% and + 10.85%, + 1.21% and + 9.52% respectively year-on-year; The industry structure was gradually optimized. In terms of income, the market share of Tongda department and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) reached 11.06% and 18.84% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.58pct and + 0.87pct respectively. In 2021, the “price war” in the express industry was suspended under policy intervention; The online sales volume of commercial retail continued to grow year-on-year, showing strong demand toughness; The trend of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the industry has initially appeared, the competition pattern of the industry has been optimized, and the profit center is expected to be improved.
Investment advice
With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the precision of epidemic prevention and control, the passenger transport demand of the air transport industry is expected to continue to recover, including Air China Limited(601111) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , etc; The “price war” in the express industry has been suspended. With the support of strong downstream demand, the industry is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price, including S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , etc.
Risk tips
Fluctuation of crude oil price and exchange rate; Deterioration of industry competition pattern; The disturbance of the epidemic has intensified.
