Market review last week:
Last week (February 21-february 25, 2022), the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) fell 3.89%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.35%. The food and beverage sector lost 2.77 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 27th among the weekly rises and falls of Shenwan’s 31 primary sub industries.
Core view: high-end Baijiu “steady” growth does not change, the valuation discount option allocation
Baijiu: high-end Baijiu “steady” growth does not change, valuation discount optional allocation. In 2022, Wande unanimously predicted that Maotai / Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) pe would be 36 / 26 / 32 times respectively, and the valuation would be discounted to choose the right configuration Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the new management team is experienced and the management has stabilized. In terms of pricing, in 2022, the company will put the control of quantity in an important position and pay more attention to the quality of mobile sales. In terms of short-term dynamic sales, this year’s Spring Festival dynamic sales are relatively stable, with a delivery progress of more than 30%. Q1 has a good start and strong predictability. Superimposed with the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase, the annual performance growth is expected. Maotai’s accelerated development momentum is sufficient, the market-oriented reform is gradually implemented, the two-way progress of supply and demand drives the fundamentals to continue to improve, and the reform of channel structure promotes the steady increase of ton price. In January, Ali online business data showed that Baijiu sales performed well in January, showing a trend of volume and price rising. The top three sales were Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the Yanghe River. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) significantly reduced the speed, with a year-on-year decrease of – 17.35%. Online data is only partly manifested, and the sales of high-end Baijiu line is the main selling scenario. Strong real estate liquor and the national high-end Baijiu brand improvement margin. Related targets: Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) channel reform meets expectations, with 10 / 20 of the gap contributing to the performance increment and over 30% of the Spring Festival payment; Willing to raise prices for many times in 2021, the channel has a strong ability to control the volume and support the price, and the performance forecast has achieved high growth. With the addition of excellent Spring Festival payment collection, the elasticity in the first quarter is still expected; Yanghe dream 6 + and crystal dream have been upgraded well, and the gross profit margin can be increased steadily.
Condiment: online data increased slightly as a whole, waiting for demand to boost. At present, the inflection point of demand side boosting is difficult to confirm, and raw materials such as soybeans are still rising slightly. As of February 25, 2022, the spot price of soybean meal is 478857 yuan / ton, with a week on week ratio of + 11.29%. According to the e-commerce data in January, the sales volume of JD condiments was 2.448 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 177.70%, the sales volume of Alibaba platform was 875 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 29.88%, the sales volume was – 19.49%, and the average price decreased by 12.90%. Q1 due to the high base number last year, the advantages of the report end are insufficient, and the community group purchase and cost suppression have been basically alleviated. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of catering channels, the inventory digestion will be better and better, and the superposition of leading enterprises to reduce the cost investment, the improvement of profit side is expected to be reflected in H2 in 2022.
Beer: the high-end trend continues, waiting for the peak season. Budweiser Asia Pacific released the financial report, which showed that China, as the main market, achieved good results in high-end and ultra-high-end categories, and the sales of high-end and above products in the main markets recorded double-digit growth. In 2021, China’s beer output was 35.624 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 5.6%. Consumption upgrading opened up the space for beer retail price. In the future, the trend of high-end beer is highly deterministic, and the industry is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price. The sales data before the Spring Festival showed excellent performance. The online sales data showed that the online sales of beer Amoy department in January was RMB 229 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.43%. The profit side improvement brought by this round of price increase will be reflected after the inflection point of raw material prices.
Investment advice
Plate allocation: Baijiu beer dairy products snack food condiment;
Baijiu: we should pay attention to the high potential Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) of high-end liquor enterprises Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and sub high end wine enterprises.
Beer: it is suggested to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) with optimized product structure and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ;
Dairy products: it is suggested to pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , which makes concerted efforts in production capacity, channels and products.
Risk tips:
Baijiu price rise less than expected, terminal demand fell, food safety issues.
