Pay attention to the impact of recent changes in real estate fundamentals on consumer building materials enterprises. According to statistics, since 2022, thunderstorms in real estate enterprises have still occurred, including 18 in January and 3 as of February 11. Compared with the average of 17.3 times per month from August to November 2021 and 37 times in December 2021, thunderstorms in real estate enterprises still occurred in 2022, but decreased as a whole. We believe that the impact on consumer building materials enterprises is reflected in two points. The first is the actual orders brought by the completion of the real estate. In 2022, the central government issued policies six times to improve the capital status of real estate enterprises. In February, affordable housing was not included in the loan concentration management, and the supervision of pre-sale funds also slowed down. We believe that at present, the capital level of real estate enterprises has improved, and the priority of the use of incremental funds is 1.5% respectively Repayment of existing debts, 2 Promote stock projects and 3 Open new projects, which may be the reason for the recent reduction of thunderstorms in real estate enterprises. Whether the incremental funds are enough to promote the stock projects depends on the current improvement of the funds of real estate enterprises and the maturity of stock debts. There is some uncertainty. Therefore, from the perspective of commencement and completion data transmission, the completion in the first half of the year will still maintain a high growth rate, but from the perspective of capital, there is some uncertainty about the actual completion and the resulting orders in the near future. The recent slowdown in the increase of glass spot price may reflect that there is still no significant increase in the actual completed orders. Second, the bad debt provision of consumer building materials enterprises will still appear. At present, there are many leading consumer building materials companies that accrue a large amount of bad debts in 2021. However, there are still thunderstorms in real estate enterprises in 2022, which represents that the risk of this round of bad debt accrual has not been completely eliminated. For consumer building materials companies, there will still be a process of risk release in the future. We believe that this may become a major factor to suppress the valuation level of consumer building materials companies in the short term. Based on this, we believe that the investment of consumer building materials enterprises in the first half of 2022 still needs to be vigilant against the risks brought by the real estate industry.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 02 / 212022 / 02 / 25), the building materials sector (CITIC) index rose by – 5.9%, compared with the excess return of CSI 300 was – 4.2%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 7.0%, compared with 0.4% of the excess yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was – 6.2%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was – 0.3%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 7.0% / – 8.9%.
Summary of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 122.46 yuan / weight box, up 0.8% month on month and 10.6% year-on-year. The inventory was 41.24 million weight boxes, up 8.2% month on month and 5.5% year-on-year. We believe that the scale of cold repair in the industry is expected to increase in 2022, and the completion of real estate will still maintain a small growth, but we should pay attention to the growth of actual orders of processing plants in the short term. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6275 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 11250 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average transaction price of the national cement market this week was 515 yuan / ton, up 0.19% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. This week, the cement delivery rate increased by 12.9pct to 27.7% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 64.0%, with a month on month decrease of 2.0 PCT. The data related to cement shipments have improved significantly, and the steady growth of infrastructure may provide a solid support for cement demand and price.
Investment proposal and investment object
Key recommendation Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy), and China Liansu (02128, buy). The glass fiber market continues to improve. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ( China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , buy). We are optimistic about the development of Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) utg glass and new materials business, and we suggest paying attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , not covered). Preferred combination of Dongfang Building Materials next week: Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Liansu
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
