Core view
Market review this week. In the 8th week, the real estate sector index was weaker than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was – 1.5%. The CSI 300 index closed at 457342, with a weekly increase of – 1.7%; The gem index closed at 285580, with a weekly increase of + 1.0%; The real estate sector index closed at 332551, with a weekly increase of – 3.2%.
Industry highlights this week. The central bank announced the latest LPR, which remained unchanged from the previous period. CBRC and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development: bank insurance institutions support the development of indemnificatory rental housing. Anhui: accelerate the construction of a new system of housing rental and purchase. Xi’an: increase the supply of affordable rental housing. Shanghai, Xiamen, Jinjiang, Nanning, Hefei, Changsha, Nantong and other places recommend new plots. Chengdu metropolitan area will build 194 major projects in 2022, with a total investment of more than trillion.
Sales of new houses this week increased compared with last week, and sales of second-hand houses increased compared with last week. In the 8th week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 29000 units, an increase of 18.4% over the 7th week; The sales of second-hand houses increased by 17.7% compared with that in large cities; Compared with the seventh week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were – 10.8% and 22.7% respectively; Compared with the seventh week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were 37.3% and 18.7% respectively. Inventory decreased compared with last week, and inventory sales decreased compared with last week. As of the 8th week, the inventory of 15 major cities was 1.22 million units, a decrease of 4000 units compared with the 7th week; The stock to sales ratio was 14.9 months, a decrease of 0.8 months compared with the seventh week. The land market transfer heat this week is lower than last week. In week 8, a total of 4 pieces of land were sold in 26 major cities. The amount of land transfer decreased. In the 8th week, the land transfer fee of 26 major cities was 2.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 560 million yuan compared with the 7th week. The average premium rate decreased. In the 8th week, the average premium rate of land transactions in 26 major cities was 0.0%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the 7th week. In week 8, the number of land auction in 26 big cities was 0.
Announcement of key companies Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) medium term notes have been issued Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) short term financing bonds have been issued China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) , Rongan Property Co.Ltd(000517) shareholders reduce the shares of the company China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) publish the performance report of 2021 Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development (Group) Ltd(000011) , China Enterprise Company Limited(600675) , Beijing Electronic Zone High-Tech Group Co.Ltd(600658) , Shanghai Shimao Co.Ltd(600823) .
Investment proposal and investment object
The sales of new and second-hand houses rebounded slightly this week, and the LPR quotation remained unchanged. At present, the fundamentals are still weak. Investors hope to see more real estate support policies from top to bottom, but the current policy strength has still maintained considerable restraint, and the market has also corrected. From the perspective of the meeting of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the meeting stressed that the risks of problematic real estate enterprises will be handled by marketization and legalization, and direct credit relief may not become a reality. We believe that based on this decision-making logic, the policy may show an average force at both ends: the supply side promotes the clearing of industries, the projects are taken over by state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, and some cities with little pressure on house price rise at the demand side can further relax regulation. Based on this framework, looking for marginal real estate enterprises is not a good strategy. We are still optimistic about the performance of real estate stocks in the future. We recommend the combination of state-owned enterprises and high credit private enterprises, Poly Real Estate ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , buy), China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ( China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) ( Gemdale Corporation(600383) , buy), Longhu group (00960, buy), Xuhui holding group (00884, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes. We recommend Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ( China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ( New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly.
