The revenue of overseas lidar manufacturers increased significantly, and the downstream market demand increased significantly. Recently, the laser radar company AEVA released the annual financial report for 2021. The annual revenue in 2021 reached US $9.265 million, a year-on-year increase of 91.3% compared with us $4.843 million in 2020; Previously, ouster released its financial report for the whole year of 2021. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of US $33.58 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.9% over US $16.89 million in 2020. At the same time, the annual shipment of ouster lidar exceeded 6475 and Q4 exceeded 2400, a year-on-year increase of + 198%. We believe that with the continuous advancement of high-level automatic driving technology in the world, the demand for sensing end lidar continues to boost, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future.
The landing of Mercedes Benz L3 in Europe is expected to accelerate the layout of manufacturers in the field of lidar. In December 2021, Mercedes Benz announced that it had officially become the first manufacturer to legally enable L3 driving assistance system in Germany. Mercedes Benz S-class and EQS equipped with the latest generation of drivepilot have passed the approval of relevant German regulatory authorities. They are equipped with a Valeo long-range lidar, which is the world’s first L3 passenger car mass production model that is truly aimed at the private market. We believe that Mercedes Benz took the lead in landing L3 level automatic driving, which is expected to drive more main engine manufacturers with technical advantages to enable their own automatic driving services on the premise of opening laws and regulations. At the same time, as the first L3 level scheme to land in a real sense, it also confirms the demand logic of lidar. The layout of China’s major technology companies and core host plants in the field of laser radar continues to be overweight: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) signed a cooperation agreement with OPSYS T ECH, Xiaopeng automobile shares one track technology, and Xiaxiazhi intelligent sixth generation automatic driving system carries 7 lidar. We believe that with the breakthrough of automatic driving technology and the gradual “deregulation” of laws and regulations, the demand for lidar is expected to accelerate.
It is estimated that the front loading space of supporting passenger cars in the Chinese market will exceed 10 billion in 2025. We believe that with the gradual promotion of intelligent driving, lidar will become one of the mainstream sensors in the future, and the front loading of supporting passenger cars will be mass produced. At present, the passenger Federation predicts that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 5.5 million in 2022. We infer that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach more than 8 million in 2025. The gradual consolidation of electric base will lay a solid foundation for the promotion of intelligence. At the same time, we believe that with the increasing volume of lidar, the cost is expected to be effectively shared, so the average price is expected to further explore. It is expected that the market space of lidar for mass production of front mounted passenger cars in the Chinese market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR is expected to reach 222.4% from 2021 to 2025.
It is suggested that with the development of laser components and radar modules, we will pay more attention to the development of laser components and radar modules in the future. It is suggested to focus on Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) , Optowide Technologies Co.Ltd(688195) , torch technology in the field of focusing laser devices / modules (electronic group coverage), Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai) Ltd(300620) .
Risk warning: the development of automatic driving technology is not as expected; The policy support of automatic driving is not as expected; The cost reduction of lidar is less than expected; The development of lidar technology is less than expected; The acceptance of lidar by the main engine factory is lower than expected
