Market review and Industry Valuation
Last week, pharmaceutical biology rose 1.71%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.38 percentage points and ranking fifth among the 31 Shenwan sub banks. The pharmaceutical sub sectors were mixed, with medical R & D outsourcing rising the most, up 5.29%, and offline pharmacies falling the most, down 2.48%. As of February 25, 2022, the PE (TTM) of shenwanyi pharmaceutical industry is 31.44 times, and the latest premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 139%. The valuation of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in the sub sector is the highest, which is 78.03 times, and the valuation of medical consumables is the lowest, which is 11.91 times.
Industry highlights
Speed up the listing of innovative drugs
More than 300 drugs will be transferred out of medical insurance
Assisted reproduction included in medical insurance
Progress of New Coronavirus pneumonia
As of February 28, 2022, there are 109526 confirmed cases in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), 2873 confirmed cases, 4636 dead cases, 102017 cured and discharged cases, and 14464 confirmed cases imported from abroad. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, as of February 27, 2022, China had received 3.124 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine.
As of February 27, 2022, 434 million cases had been confirmed in the world. The country with the largest number of cases was the United States, with a total of 80.61 million, followed by India and Brazil, with 42.92 million and 28.79 million confirmed respectively. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, as of February 27, 2022, covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated 10.728 billion doses worldwide, and the vaccination proportion (number of complete vaccinations / total population) was 55.54%.
Core view
The overall valuation of the industry is at a historically low level, and the industrial development trend is good. In the long run, the normalization of volume procurement continues to accelerate industry differentiation, forcing enterprises to transform to innovation; The medical insurance catalogue was dynamically adjusted to continuously accelerate the volume of innovative drugs. Driven by policies, talents and capital, China’s innovative drugs have entered the harvest period of achievements and opened the road of internationalization. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation and related segments of the industrial chain: (1) at present, the R & D homogenization of innovative drugs in China is relatively serious, the targets and indications are relatively concentrated, and the industry has gradually changed from me too / me worth to me better, more innovative The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with strong R & D strength, abundant pipelines, reasonable gradient and outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , etc; (2) China’s vaccine industry continues to be in a high boom state, the iterative upgrading of technology is accelerated, and heavy products are listed one after another. Domestic innovative vaccines have become the support point to promote the sustainable growth of the industry market. The industry concentration continues to increase. We suggest paying attention to the leading high-quality vaccine enterprises Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , etc. with listing (including agency), heavy or exclusive products under research, production and R & D strength; (3) With the progress of science and technology, new medical discoveries, new technologies and new fields are emerging, and biological emerging markets such as cell and gene therapy are developing rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the development trends of various industries, high-quality enterprises and upstream industrial chains, such as life science services; (4) Global and Chinese innovative drug R & D is booming, and China’s CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies and the continuous improvement of technical level, the industry concentration is expected to further improve. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders and subdivided leaders.
Risk tips
Industry policy risk, drug safety risk, R & D risk and market competition risk.
