\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 518 Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) )
Main points:
The tiktok believes that: 1) the dividend period of the flick voice has passed and the growth rate will slow down in the future. 2) the flow of dart flow from tiktok to other categories such as life scenes, and the growth of future clothing category will further decline. 3) Since April 21, the month on month growth rate of TW has been lower than that of the market. But we believe that 1) tiktok is still expected to achieve 30-40% growth during the stationary phase. 2) In 21 years, the flow has been inclined to the categories of life scenes, but the growth rate of clothing is still the highest; 3) TW brand has been growing faster than the market in the 21 years from April to now. The main reason is that the TW is still supporting the brand's self seeding and attracting a large number of new brands. But the TW still keeps the high digit growth rate. The TW has been the first place to win the brand tiktok GMV and the first time of the brand's self broadcasting monthly.
Looking to the future, in the short term: (1) revenue side: the main business is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 22 years; (2) Expense side: the financial expense ratio is expected to improve significantly in 22 years, driving profit growth higher than revenue growth. In the medium and long term, (1) we estimate that the target market size of vgrass is 2.5-3.4 billion yuan and that of TW is 5-6 billion yuan; (2) Expense side: on the one hand, there is room for further improvement in financial expenses. On the other hand, with the improvement of store efficiency and the optimization of cost structure, there is room for 3-5pct improvement in sales expense rate. We believe that the long-term target net interest rate is expected to reach 15%. We estimate that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.319/50.87/5.913 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.20/3.50/427 million yuan respectively, the EPS will be 0.74/1.18/1.44 yuan respectively, the closing price on February 25, 2022 will be 10.7 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 14 / 9 / 7X respectively. Considering that the company's revenue is expected to maintain double-digit growth, and the net profit growth driven by the improvement of net interest rate is higher than the revenue growth, we give a 22-year 15xpe valuation, The corresponding target market value is 5.25 billion yuan and the target price is 17.7 yuan, which is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Tw: online is expected to drive offline expansion, and there is room for improvement in net interest rate
Company advantage: fast channel of jitter channel, strong tiktok operation. Tiktok tiktok tiktok, 2020Q3, has started to shake its voice. We estimate that the revenue ratio of the 21 year's revenue is 40%, and the channel has surpassed Tmall to become the biggest channel of the company. Growth drive: 1) online: at present, TW has already opened 16 official shops in women's dresses, men's wear and children's wear, and will be developed with accessories, JK and footwear products tiktok. 2) Store efficiency: in 2020, the tw store efficiency will be 1.52 million yuan, and the benchmarking peers are expected to reach 2.5-3 million yuan. 3) Number of stores: in 2020, there were 1160 TW stores and more than 2000 benchmarking peers. 4) Cost: the annual financial cost of 22 is expected to save 90 million yuan.
Vgrass: customer stickiness is strong, and there is room for improvement in store efficiency and number of stores
Company advantages: heavy design, strong channels, strong customer stickiness, and vgrass has a high proportion of VIP sales.
Growth drivers: 1) number of stores: in 2020, the number of stores in the company will be 194, and we estimate that there will be about 400 offline stores. 2) Store efficiency: in 2020, the company's store efficiency will be 4.39 million yuan. Referring to peers, we believe that the store efficiency is expected to reach 6-8 million yuan. 3) Online: in 2020, vgrass's online revenue reached 200 million yuan. Under the high base, vgrass slowed down in 2021, but it is expected to maintain a faster growth rate online than offline in the future.
Risk tips
Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Financial risks; Goodwill impairment risk; Systemic risk.
