\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 418 Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) )
Key investment points
Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) is a comprehensive old independent automobile manufacturer integrating the research, production, marketing and service of a full range of commercial vehicles, passenger cars and powertrain. At present, JAC's products are mainly complete vehicles and bus chassis. The complete vehicle products basically cover the whole category of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, including heavy, medium, light, micro trucks, multi-functional commercial vehicles, buses, MPV, SUV, cars, etc.
Commercial vehicle sector: light truck business benefits from industry dividends. The governance of "large ton and small standard" is becoming stricter, and the elimination of illegal models promotes the new demand for light trucks. Since May 2019, the policy has frequently dealt with the violations of "large ton and small standard", and the elimination of light trucks with excessive stock has released the demand for transportation capacity. We calculated the volume of light truck capacity released by the "large ton and small standard" governance, and comprehensively considered the right of way + transport capacity economy. We believe that the transport capacity released by illegal light trucks mainly flows to compliant light trucks, and the scale of the industry is expected to continue to rise. Jac's commercial vehicle product layout is comprehensive, and the market share of light truck market remains at the forefront of the industry. The perfect light truck product system, rich product reserves and perfect product matrix will ensure that JAC can meet the replacement needs of all kinds of light trucks, so that the company can benefit from the development dividend of light truck industry.
Passenger car sector: Sihao brand electric intelligent development accelerated. Sihao is a brand-new passenger car brand released by JAC Volkswagen in 2018. JAC has in-depth cooperation with Huawei, horizon, Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) etc. in the field of passenger car intelligence, and launched the intelligent vehicle modular platform MIS haoxue architecture with excellent performance. MIS haoxue architecture took five years to develop and invested 10 billion R & D resources. It has the characteristics of excellent performance, intelligent technology and flexible iteration. Jianghuai Sihao will build 15-20 competitive new models based on MIS haoxue architecture and continuously improve its sales scale.
OEM Weilai: boost performance growth + technological progress. Jac is a first-line brand of new power in China, Weilai OEM vehicle production. The current contract cooperation period is until May 2024, with an annual planned capacity of 240000 vehicles. Jac OEM Weilai has accumulated experience in the production of new energy vehicles and contributed a new increment of performance.
Volkswagen Anhui: Volkswagen China's electrification is a comprehensive bet, technical support + product introduction, and will contribute to the investment income from 2023. In 2020, VW increased the capital of Jianghuai Volkswagen joint venture, and the shareholding ratio rose to 75%. Volkswagen Anhui has achieved all-round layout in technology + capacity + products. 1) technology: the construction of Volkswagen Anhui R & D center has been completed, and the front-end R & D and production are fully controlled to promote the localization process of Volkswagen China market. 2) Capacity: MEB manufacturing plant was started in 2021, and the first model was put into operation in 2023. The maximum annual output is expected to reach 350000 vehicles. 3) Products: Volkswagen promises to grant 4-5 Volkswagen Group brand products to the joint venture. Jac is expected to continue to benefit.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's commercial vehicle business segment is expected to benefit from the dividend of stricter governance of the light truck industry and rising replacement demand. In the passenger vehicle segment, the company has cooperated deeply with Huawei to improve the intelligent level of the whole vehicle, and the upward brand is expected to break the downward trend of passenger vehicle sales in recent years. In addition, the company's OEM Weilai contributes to performance growth + technological progress. At the same time, Volkswagen Anhui has realized an all-round layout in technology + capacity + products, opening up the space for performance growth. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 252 / 370 / 508 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 76.7% / + 46.6% / + 37.4%, corresponding to 119 / 81 / 59 times of PE. For the first coverage, we give Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the progress of epidemic control is lower than expected; Chip / battery and other key parts supply chain instability risk, etc
