\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 001 Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) )
Both volume and price rose, and Q4’s revenue hit another record high
According to the statistics of Boya Hexun, the average market prices of VA, VE, biotin and methionine in China in 2021 were 314.7/80.4/69.4/20.2 yuan / kg respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 19.9% / 24% / – 62.1% / 1.7%. We estimate that the substantial increase in revenue is mainly due to the contribution of methionine and the commissioning of the Northeast project. The decrease in net interest rate is mainly due to the rise in the price of raw chemical products and the change in the structure of nutritional products. The sales volume of VC and methionine is expected to increase significantly in 21 years. Methionine prices run at the bottom. The net interest rate of 23.7% in the first three quarters is lower than the overall level of the company. Q4 company’s single quarter revenue increased by 30.7% month on month, a record high. We expect the peak sales season in the fourth quarter, and the sales volume of core products is expected to increase significantly month on month. According to the statistics of Boya Hexun, the average market prices of VA, VE, biotin and methionine in China were 286.2/89.4/82/20.4 yuan / kg respectively, with a month on month change of 1.12% / 13.4% / 35.4% / 11.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 decreased by 1.5% month on month, which is expected to be mainly due to the high accrued expenses and the impact of the suspension of production in December.
The price is expected to rise, and the production of new projects will accelerate the growth of the company
The concentration of VE industry reshuffle has increased significantly, the supply is tight, it will enter the business cycle, and the price of VE is expected to continue to rise. Several projects of the company are expected to be put into operation this year. In December, the company announced that it would continue to expand the production of methionine in cooperation with Zhenhai Refining and chemical, set up a new nylon material subsidiary, and the adiponitrile project is worth looking forward to. Recently, it was disclosed that the company’s covid-19 oral drug intermediate carbonic anhydride and azabicyclic project are in the application for approval. Once put into operation, it is expected to become an important product of the company’s API business. The company has the advantages of integrated industrial chain and scale. We expect that the company will have strong competitiveness. The company has invested heavily to build four product platforms around acetone, hydrocyanic acid, phosgene and fermentation, and is expected to become a leading comprehensive fine chemical company in the world. The continuous operation of new projects will accelerate the growth of the company and reduce the impact of price fluctuations on the company. The company announced that no more than 41 yuan / share will be repurchased by means of centralized bidding transaction for Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) million yuan for equity incentive or employee stock ownership, demonstrating confidence in its own future development.
Profit forecast and valuation
Adjust the company’s EPS forecast from 2021 to 2023 to 1.67/2.24/2.82 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE is 20.55/15.31/12.18 times respectively. The company is the world’s leader in vitamins and fragrances. In recent years, the fixed assets have increased substantially, and new capacity has entered the delivery period. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The prices of raw materials and products fluctuate greatly; Exchange rate and trade risks; Brain drain risk; Environmental protection policy risk, etc.
