\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 338 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) )
Event description:
Event 1: the company announced the performance forecast for the past 21 years. The revenue was 1.35-1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.45% - 43.58%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 305315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 73.82% - 79.52%. The change in the fair value of Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) shares indirectly held by the company increased the net profit attributable to the parent by 140150 million yuan, and the non net profit attributable to the parent was 145155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.42% - 20.17%. Event 2: the company transferred 75% of the equity of Dexiang Zhongmao with RMB 22.5 million, and the expansion in Central China landed ahead of schedule.
Franchise: the single store model has been significantly improved, and the number of stores has increased rapidly
In the past 21 years, the company has taken many measures to empower stores. The unified management of the brand of store takeout business has been carried out in an all-round way, the upgrading and transformation of three generations of stores has been accelerated, the new products of stores have been expanded, the dinner scene and the price increase of some products have continued to increase the store revenue. In the past 21 years, the single store revenue has risen to the pre epidemic level. With the marginal improvement of the single store model, the impact of the epidemic in 21 years has weakened, the expansion of stores has spread rapidly, and the opening and closing of stores have changed significantly. Among them, the normal growth rate is restored in East China, and more than 100 stores are expected to be added in South and North China. Considering the consolidation of central China, the number of stores in 22 years can achieve a high growth of more than 20% year-on-year.
Group meal sales: five in one intensive cultivation and high growth of group meal business
The 1.5 trillion yuan group meal market has a broad space. The company continues to increase the group meal business. With the production of Shanghai phase II intelligent chemical plant, the company's finished product capacity can be expanded. It is expected that the group meal revenue will exceed 15% in 21 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. In addition, the company further subdivides the group meal customers to meet the needs of the five major customers of enterprises and institutions, including group meal, catering supply chain, supermarkets and convenience stores, catering chain brands and e-commerce platform. The group meal business is expected to continue to increase.
Outlook: the acquisition in Central China was launched ahead of schedule to accelerate the national layout, the production capacity in Nanjing was released, and the extension acquisition in East China market was completed faster than expected. The company quickly entered the central China market through "good gifts" and "early convenience", took an important step to break through the bottleneck of local stores, and may become a model for national expansion. In East China, the Nanjing plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year. After the release of production capacity, the distribution of stores in Northern Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhejiang markets may be increased. The regional expansion in East China is worth looking forward to.
Investment advice
Under the background of steady growth, the resilience of people's livelihood demand is sufficient, and the company's business growth is highly uncertain. On the revenue side, the revenue of franchise stores will continue to be optimized, and the high growth of group meal business will also continue. On the profit side, pork is the main raw material, the cost pressure is expected to be greatly reduced, and the market advertising investment is more rational. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.388 billion yuan, 1.765 billion yuan and 2.177 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.4% / 27.1% / 23.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 309 million yuan, 288 million yuan and 307 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 76.0% / - 6.8% / + 6.8% (considering the lifting of Dongpeng ban in 22 years, the fair value increased by 50 million yuan). EPS is 1.24, 1.16 and 1.24 respectively, and the corresponding PE is 24.23, 25.99 and 24.34 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, food safety risk and lower than expected capacity construction.
