\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 011 Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue y]9.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 33.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 408 million yuan, reversing losses year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 388 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 474.88%. comment:
The performance is in line with expectations and the business improvement trend is clear. In 2021q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 66 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 76 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year. Q4 achieved a net interest rate of 2.67%. If the impact of Q4 accrued guarantee loss of 324912 million yuan is deducted, the company achieved a net profit margin of 4.47%, which was improved month on month. In 2021, Q4 company renegotiated the pricing of orders with overseas customers, and we expect the profitability of the company to be effectively improved in 2021.
Gree’s accession process has accelerated, and the market in the commercial field has been continuously developed. On February 25, 2022, Gree’s acquisition was examined and approved by the State Administration of market supervision. As a precondition for Gree’s acquisition and fixed growth, the approval of antitrust review means that the delivery of acquisition matters and fixed growth progress are accelerated. Gree is expected to accelerate the development of the company’s commercial business while improving the company’s industrial status. In 2021, the company continued to expand its market in the commercial field. As the main supplier of heat pipe backplane energy-saving air conditioning system in the data communication industry, Dunan central air conditioning has provided green, efficient and energy-saving central air conditioning solutions for many data centers across the country, and has been widely promoted and applied in the data center fields such as national ministries and commissions and communication operators, We expect that in the future, the company’s central air conditioner used in the communication industry will benefit from the “counting from the east to the west” project to accelerate business expansion.
The development of automobile thermal management business is smooth: the electronic expansion valve has a good pattern and high technical patent barriers. At present, there are no new players in the industry that can be mass produced, and Dunan products and production capacity advantages are clear. The company has expanded smoothly in terms of new customers and models. Vehicle manufacturers such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and others have accelerated the application of heat pump integrated modules, greatly expanded the capacity of the industry, and further improved the potential development space of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: from the perspective of valuation, the recent correction of the company’s share price is obvious, corresponding to the 22-year valuation of about 19x, with a high margin of safety. We estimate that the company’s revenue in the 21st-23rd year will be 9.68/10.8/12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.1 / + 11.6 / + 17.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 410 / 580 / 760 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 141.2 / 41.0 / 30.0%, corresponding to PE of 26.7 / 18.9 / 14.5 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: the business development of new energy thermal management system is less than expected, the consumption of downstream civil air conditioning is less than expected, the promotion of the company’s commercial business is less than expected, the bid winning of nuclear power project is less than expected, etc.
