\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 348 Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) )
Aluminum alloy die casting veterans, global layout
The company has been deeply engaged in the aluminum alloy die casting industry for more than 20 years, focusing on the high-pressure and low-pressure casting process. Its products have expanded from small parts such as engine system with low barriers to body structural parts with high barriers, and the product structure has been continuously optimized. In the past 20 years, through the acquisition of France Bailian, the company has improved its global layout and filled the vacancy of gravity casting process. In 2021q1-3, the company's revenue was about 2.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 104%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 7%.
Lightweight boost the use of aluminum alloy in single car
Lightweight is an important way to save energy and reduce emissions. When the weight of passenger cars is reduced by 10%, the energy consumption of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is reduced by 3.3% ~ 3.9% and 6.3% respectively. According to the research data of Sairui, aluminum alloy accounts for 64% in the young quantitative material market in 2020. The consumption of aluminum alloy single vehicle is expected to further increase in the future. According to duckerfrontier data, the consumption of aluminum for light vehicles in North America will be 208kg in 2020 and is expected to reach 259kg in 2030. At each system level of single vehicle, the aluminum penetration rate of chassis, suspension and body structural parts, which account for a large proportion of the body, is still low. According to the prediction of the International Aluminum Association, the aluminum consumption CAGR of chassis, suspension and body structural parts of electric vehicles from 2018 to 2025 is 19.1% and 9.3% respectively.
Integrated die casting is a blue ocean market in the field of die casting
The body structure is a technology and capital intensive industry, and the competition pattern is better. Aluminum alloy body structural parts are generally complex thin-walled parts, which have high requirements for strength and elongation, and test the manufacturer's manufacturing process, mold development process, material preparation process, manufacturing experience, etc. At present, only a few companies such as Wencan, Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) , Guangdong Paisheng Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300176) , merison, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and others are available for the company to realize large-scale production.
Integrated die-casting body structure parts are the blue ocean market. The integrated die-casting body structure has the economy of use and manufacturing. Taking the integrated die-casting bottom sector of Tera modely as an example, the weight can be reduced by 10%, the endurance can be increased by 14% and the manufacturing cost can be reduced by 40%. At present, in addition to Tesla, new forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz and Volvo and traditional vehicle manufacturers are actively introducing integrated die-casting technology. We predict that by 2025, the market space of China's automobile integrated die-casting body structure will reach 16.7 billion, and the CAGR will be about 147% from 2021 to 2025. At present, few companies have mastered the integrated die-casting technology, only Tesla has achieved mass production, and manufacturers represented by Wencan are actively promoting mass production.
The company is expected to grow into an integrated die casting leader
1) rich production experience of thin-walled parts and leading technology in China. Wencan is one of the earliest companies to enter the field of body structural parts in China, and has realized the expansion of products from small parts to large parts and thick wall parts to thin wall parts. Benefiting from years of thin-wall die casting, the company has accumulated rich process experience, the technology is at the leading level in China, and has won high-quality customers such as Mercedes Benz and Tesla.
2) in depth cooperation and comprehensive layout of equipment, molds and materials. Equipment, the company signed the strategic cooperation agreement with Lijin group, formed a concerted action in the technology of super large die casting, and purchased multiple 6000t and 9000t large die casting machines. Mold, the company established its subsidiary Wencan mold in 2014, which has the ability of independent mold design and development. The molds of all body structural parts are independently developed and manufactured. At present, the company has mastered the formula with excellent die-casting performance of aluminum alloy materials for body structure parts.
3) take the lead in integrated die casting orders and expand market opportunities through M & A. 21h1 company obtained the project order of large integrated body structure parts, and the fixed-point time is the earliest in the industry. The French Bailian acquired in 2020 will further improve the company's coverage in terms of products, customers and technology, and is expected to realize customer channel interoperability and product mutual guidance in the future.
Profit forecast
The company is deeply engaged in aluminum alloy die casting. Under the trend of integrated die casting, it helps the company accelerate revenue growth and improve profitability. We expect the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 4.17 billion yuan, 5.34 billion yuan and 7.09 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 60%, + 28% and + 33% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 90 million, RMB 390 million and RMB 610 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 9%, + 321% and + 59% respectively; The current share price corresponding to PE is 138, 33 and 21 times respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Aluminum prices rose, capacity expansion was less than expected, and chip supply was tight
