\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Event: the company signed an investment agreement with Nanning Municipal People's Government on the project of Forest Pulp paper integration and supporting industrial park with an annual output of 5.25 million tons.
The company signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement with Nanning Municipal People's Government on February 26, involving the investment project of "5.25 million tons of Forest Pulp paper integration and supporting industrial park project". Production content: it mainly produces high-grade packaging paper, plastic substitute paper, coated paper, double offset paper, special paper-based new materials, pulp and other products, as well as upstream and downstream packaging, printing, paper deep processing, intelligent storage, wharf, logistics and other supporting equipment. The project investment is about 20 billion yuan.
The industrial chain will be laid out in depth to consolidate the leading position of comprehensive papermaking.
The company is a comprehensive leading paper enterprise in China with cultural paper as the core and multiple kinds of paper going hand in hand. It has three production bases in Shandong, Laos and Guangxi, of which the production capacity of Laos and Guangxi extends to the upstream pulping link, By the end of 2021, the company's Guangxi Beihai phase I production capacity has been fully put into operation (550000 tons of cultural paper in September 2021, 60000 tons of household paper in October 2021, 800000 tons of chemical pulp and 200000 tons of chemical mechanical pulp in December 2021). At present, other projects in Guangxi Beihai base are also in orderly progress. The 5.25 million ton production capacity planning of Nanning has developed in depth in the early construction of Guangxi base, optimized the company's product structure, created a complete raw material supply system, improved the logistics transportation and sales channel construction of Guangxi base, and continuously improved the company's core competitiveness and sustainable development ability.
The price of cultural paper has been raised, the capacity of self prepared pulp is large, and the profit improvement can be expected.
In mid and late February, paper enterprises intensively issued a new round of letters on the price increase of cultural paper, and the paper price generally increased by 300 yuan / ton. According to Zhuo Chuang information, as of February 28, the latest average market price of double offset paper was 5838 yuan / ton, and the quotation of the company's cultural paper "Huaxia sun" was 6700 yuan / ton. The main reasons for this round of paper price rise are as follows: 1) supply and demand: close to the peak season, traditional textbook publishing orders are gradually in large quantities, boosting demand; In addition, the shift of paper enterprises in the early stage + shutdown during holidays led to the decline of paper enterprises' inventory and the weakening of supply pressure; 2) Cost side: the pulp price continues to strengthen in the short term under the influence of strike, production reduction, tension between Russia and Ukraine and other factors, and the pulp paper linkage forms a strong cost side support; In addition, energy prices have dropped significantly since November. Taking coal as an example, the latest market price of power coal in Qinhuangdao port is 840 yuan / ton, down 173% from the high of 2292.5 yuan / ton in late October. In December, the company's chemical mechanical pulp / chemical pulp line was put into operation, and it is expected to gradually increase the volume from 22q1, so as to enhance the company's cost advantage. The company's short-term profit improvement can be expected under the background of paper price rebound + large volume of its own pulp line; Long term optimistic about the in-depth development of Forest Pulp paper integration. We expect the company to achieve an operating revenue of 31.874/33.168/34.618 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 47.6% / 4.1% / 4.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.941/3.090/3.282 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50.6% / 5.1% / 6.2%; The corresponding PE is 11.03x, 10.5x and 9.88x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply and the production capacity was less than expected.
