\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Event:
The company released the performance express for 2021, realizing a revenue of 15.353 billion yuan (YoY + 9.62%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.114 billion yuan (YoY + 6.63%).
Key investment points:
In 2021, the growth rate of advertising revenue exceeded 30%, and the growth of members reached the expectation: (1) in 2021, the revenue was 15.353 billion yuan (YoY + 9.62%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan (YoY + 6.63%), and the revenue of 2021q1-q4 was 40.09/38.44/37.78/37.21 billion yuan (YoY + 47.0% / + 26.2% / + 2.2% / - 17.9%); The profit attributable to the parent company was 774 / 678 / 529 / 133 million yuan (YoY + 61.2% / + 8.7% / + 4.0% / - 64.0%). The year-on-year growth rate of revenue and profit in the second half of the year decreased, mainly due to strengthened supervision, less content broadcasting and the structural adjustment of subsidiaries. (2) The core business mango TV Internet video business (advertising + members + operators) grew steadily, realizing an operating revenue of 11.261 billion yuan (YoY + 24.28%), of which: ① the advertising revenue reached 5.453 billion yuan (YoY + 31.75%), and 118 new advertisers were developed. The investment amount of head variety shows reached a record high, and the investment amount of "sister 2 riding the wind and waves" reached the highest in the industry. The advertising revenue of 2021h2 is 2.3 billion yuan, which is basically the same as that of 2020h2. It is mainly affected by less content scheduling. The core variety show "detective 7" of 2021q4 is postponed. The broadcasting of "happy base camp" is suspended in October. There are no other popular variety shows in 2021q4 since the end of "brother cutting through thorns" in October. In addition, affected by the epidemic situation, weak consumption and policies, the willingness of advertising in Internet / consumer goods / education and other industries is not strong. ② The member income was 3.688 billion yuan (YoY + 13.3%), and the number of effective members reached 50.4 million (YoY + 39.5%) at the end of 2021. The rapid growth of members was in line with expectations. In 2021, arppu was 85.2 yuan (yoy-28.6%), which fell to a certain extent, and the discount of "youth Mango Festival" and other activities was large. At the end of 2021, the official announced the price increase of members in January 2022, and the price increase range of Apple end was 4.8% - 9.4%; The price increase of Android end is 22.5% - 28.9%, which directly stimulates a new round of member renewal and arppu recovery, which is expected to increase member income in 2022. ③ The operator's revenue was 2.12 billion yuan (YoY + 27.17%), and carried out in-depth strategic cooperation with mobile Migu around large screen and 5g innovative business.
On the basis of promising high-quality content, the business will develop healthily in 2022: (1) according to Yunhe data, the effective broadcast volume of mango TV series in 2021 was 6.9 billion (yoy-34%), with 83 new episodes, down from 91 in 2021; The effective broadcasting volume of variety shows is 5.3 billion (yoy-29%), and the number of new shows is 55, down from 62 in 2021. The number of new shows is 52, with an independent broadcasting rate of 95%. In 2021, the overall content is less broadcast. (2) Optimistic about the improvement of content scheduling in 2022: [variety] has 26 variety program production teams with strong self-control ability. In January 2022, kuaibun was revised and renamed "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " and went online again. Up to now, the average number of broadcasts in this period is 95 million, which is higher than 88 million before the suspension of broadcasting, and the broadcasting situation is stable; "Big detective 7" premiered on January 28, 2022, with a cumulative broadcast volume of more than 1 billion, ranking No. 2 in Yien's February broadcast index list, and Douban scored 7.9 points. In 2022, there are also a series of popular variety shows such as "sister riding the wind and waves 3", "brother cutting through thorns 2" and "escape from the chamber of Secrets 4". The music competition variety "sound life" is expected to be broadcast in 2022q1. [series] it has 29 series teams and 34 new mang studios. The monsoon theater continued to output steadily. Jiang Zhao dawn premiered on January 27, 2022, and lieyien ranked second in the broadcasting index in February, with a cumulative broadcasting of 1.05 billion. The monsoon theater has reserved "wife's choice" and "Zhang Weiguo's summer" and so on. In addition, the solo play "Shangshi" premiered on February 22, 2022, with a broadcast volume of more than 500 million on the sixth day. It has reserved "juvenile Faction 2", "forensic Qin Ming" and other popular potential dramas to be broadcast.
The layout of the new track continued to increase: (1) Xiaomang, an e-commerce platform, was upgraded to a "e-commerce platform for trendy domestic content", with a peak dau of 1.26 million and a KPI. Mango m-city, a self operated live entertainment brand, operates well in Changsha and Shanghai, and is expected to open more stores in Chengdu, Wuhan and other cities. (2) Multi directional entry into the metauniverse: Mango TV cooperates with Hunan Radio and television to explore the construction of mango metauniverse based on the national 5g Key Laboratory of radio and television: Launch technological innovation achievements such as virtual host "Yahoo", AR star co shooting interactive system and interactive video platform, and build the infrastructure of mango metauniverse through "interaction + virtual + cloud rendering", In addition, the variety "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " introduced the virtual host Xiaoyang.
Profit forecast and investment rating: short video platform "erchuang" regulatory overweight, "Qinglang action" content regulatory policy is expected to continue, and the competition pattern of long video platform is expected to improve. As a party media and state-owned enterprise, the company takes practical actions to resist industrial chaos and establish a new benchmark for the development of state-owned Internet enterprises; Good cash flow and profitability, and establish a positive ecological cycle of long video content. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be RMB 2.50/2.95 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.34/1.58 and PE of 25.5/21.7x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth slows down, variety attraction fails / member growth / content performance fails to meet expectations, impact of new business layout, copyright price increase, new technology layout fails to meet expectations, policies, brain drain, change of advertisers' budget preference, corporate governance structure, market style switching and other risks.
