\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 155 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) )
Event:
The 2021 performance express was released, and the estimated operating revenue was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; Among them, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 52 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9%.
The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the cost of substantial expansion is ahead. It is expected that the performance is expected to speed up in 2022
1) power battery manufacturers have expanded their production significantly, the orders of the company’s module / pack automation equipment have increased rapidly, and the operating revenue has more than doubled in 2021. 2) The net interest rate of the company in 2021 was about 6.38%, 3.40pct lower than that in 2020, mainly due to the significant expansion of production capacity in 2021, a large increase in depreciation and amortization, the accrual of equity incentive expenses, a significant increase in orders, and the accrual of bad debt reserves. 3) It is estimated that the amount of newly signed equipment orders of the company will reach 2 billion yuan in 2021, and the revenue is still expected to maintain a significant growth in 2022. At the same time, affected by the scale effect, the per capita output is expected to recover gradually, the cost rate during the period is expected to decrease, and the profitability will be gradually improved.
Acquire Ningde Dongheng machinery, cut into the structural parts of lithium battery module, and make a major breakthrough in the layout of new products
Ningde Dongheng machinery is mainly engaged in the structural parts of lithium battery modules (battery shell, module / pack shell, etc.), and was selected as the “specialized special new” enterprise in Ningde City (2019) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) excellent supplier (2018). Dongheng mechanical lithium battery structural parts are expected to have upstream and downstream cooperation with the company’s new energy vehicle automation equipment, further improve the company’s production capacity, expand customers, and strengthen the two wheel drive development strategy of new energy vehicle equipment and products.
The grant of the equity incentive plan is completed, demonstrating the confidence of the management
In 2022, the equity incentive plan granted a total of 1 million restricted shares at a price of 108 yuan (the current stock price is 118 yuan), with a total of 148 directors, executives and business backbones of the target company.
New energy vehicle model group / pack equipment leader, five factors driving performance acceleration
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that China’s module / pack line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025. Driving forces for growth: 1) the demand for lithium battery equipment continues to grow; 2) The automation rate of module / pack is improved.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) The company’s market share in China will be about 25% in 2020, and there is still room for further improvement. 2) New energy vehicles in Europe and the United States are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.7/2.9/410 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 90% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 127 / 30 / 22 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, and the expansion of new products is less than expected.
