\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
Report guide
Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) released the performance express data of 2021. After preliminary accounting, the company achieved a revenue of 1.951 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 45%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%. The performance is in line with expectations.
Key investment points
The net profit in the 21st year was 1.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%
In the 21st year, the company achieved revenue of 1.951 billion yuan, yoy + 45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.158 billion yuan, yoy + 45%. Among them, 21q4 achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 6.137334 billion respectively, yoy + 56% / 13%. The growth of revenue is faster than that of profit. We speculate that it is mainly due to the high price of steel pushing up the revenue per ton.
The net profit per ton is expected to increase steadily in 21 years, highlighting the strong cost control power
In the 21st year, the company achieved an output of 3.3867 million tons of steel structure, assuming a sales volume of 3.3 million tons. The annual net profit per ton is expected to be 351 yuan and 256 yuan respectively, an increase of 8.5% and 4.0% respectively compared with 324 yuan and 246 yuan in the 20th year, highlighting excellent cost control ability and strong market bargaining ability.
Release the employee stock ownership plan to promote the common growth of the core backbone and the enterprise
On February 12, the company released the employee stock ownership plan for 2022. The maximum amount of funds planned to be raised is 236 million yuan. The sources of funds are the legal salary of the company’s employees, self raised funds and interest free loans of the controlling shareholders. Mr. Shang Xiaobo, the actual controller of the company, promises to compensate the partnership for any loss caused by the transfer and holding of the company’s shares; The value-added income shall be owned by all partners of the partnership. No transfer within 3 years; After three years, the annual reduction ratio will not be higher than 25% from the fourth year, which is expected to provide a long-term incentive to further improve the level of corporate governance.
In the past 22 years, the demand for steel structure has improved and the production capacity has expanded steadily
Under the “double carbon” strategy, vigorously promoting low-carbon emission intensity prefabricated buildings has become one of the main tasks for the construction industry to achieve the “double carbon” goal; The central economic work conference has set the tone of “steady growth” and carried out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule in 22 years. Against this background, we expect the demand for steel structures to improve in 22 years and the demand is expected to accelerate. The company will not relax its capacity of 5 million tons at the end of 22 and deepen its cooperation with large iron and steel enterprises. It is expected to further consolidate the cost advantage of the purchasing end and strengthen the information management ability. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will increase steadily and the cost advantage will be further strengthened in 22 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
On the premise of fully considering the possible changes of the company’s main business costs in the future, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 19.514 billion yuan, 24.660 billion yuan and 29.094 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 45.08%, 26.37% and 17.98%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.158, 1.505 and 1.924 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.91%, 30.00% and 27.80%, corresponding to EPS of 221, 2.87 and 3.67 yuan. The current price corresponds to 21.4, 16.5 and 12.9 times of PE. Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of steel structure fabricated buildings is lower than expected; Steel price fluctuation; The growth rate of fixed asset investment was lower than expected.
