\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 089 Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) )
In 2022, the new national standard is expected to accelerate the implementation and maintain the “buy” rating
The company announced the annual performance express for 2021: it is expected that the company’s revenue in 2021 will be 350 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.55%, and the net profit attributable to the parent before and after deduction will be 128 million yuan and 83 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.64% and an increase of 0.94%. It is estimated that the company’s 2021q4 revenue is 101 million yuan, an increase of 16.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent before and after deduction is 27 million yuan and 15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 62.2%. Considering the short-term pace of fulfilling the new national standard, the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is lowered to 128 million yuan, 174 million yuan and 256 million yuan respectively (the previous value is 137 million yuan, 193 million yuan and 288 million yuan), corresponding to 1.05, 1.45 and 2.13 yuan of EPS from 2021 to 2023. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 44.7, 32.5 and 22.1 times respectively. Customers in the new national standard and international market are expected to land in 2022 and maintain the “buy” rating.
Ara and DHA were relatively stable, and SA increased rapidly.
(1) throughout 2021, Ara remained stable. On the one hand, the orders of A2 milk powder, an international major customer, decreased significantly due to the interruption of overseas shopping channels in Australia; On the other hand, the company’s entry into international new customers offset part of the impact. DHA remained relatively stable throughout the year, with good demand performance in 2021h1, and the demand for 2021q3 health products fell, mainly due to the slowdown in the demand for online health products. SA is growing rapidly, and is expected to increase by more than 80% in the whole year, mainly due to the rapid growth of the demand for children’s milk powder. (2) The revenue of 2021q4 recovered double-digit growth, and the revenue growth of 2021q4 increased month on month compared with 2021q3, mainly due to the commercial transaction of international major customers and the restorative growth of Ara business.
The annual net interest rate decreased
The main reasons are as follows: (1) the investment of front-end R & D expenses is increased, which is used in the field of synthetic biology and new product development. It is expected that the R & D expense rate in 2022 will be the same as that in 2021, and the new business still needs higher R & D expense investment in the short term. (2) DSM compensation has been reduced due to the transaction of international customers. In addition, the rise in international freight and raw material costs has a slight impact.
It is expected that the new national standard setting demand will be implemented, and the performance is expected to accelerate quarter by quarter
Looking forward to the whole year: (1) all infant formula will implement the new national standard before February 2023. It is expected that the orders of the new national standard before 2022q4 are expected to be released intensively, and the annual performance is expected to accelerate quarter by quarter. (2) Orders from international customers are expected to expand further. (3) In terms of SA, the demand for children’s milk powder is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and the cosmetics sector is actively developing major customers.
Risk warning: DSM’s non performance risk and food safety risk
