\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 200 Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021.
The pace of order acceptance has been delayed, and the performance of Q4 revenue end is lower than expected. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 878 million yuan, a significant increase of 121% year-on-year, mainly due to the accelerated expansion of the sealing and testing plant and the maintenance of high capital expenditure under the background of global "core shortage". At the same time, the company strengthened customer expansion, continued to launch new products, improved the business system and continuously improved its market competitiveness, Driving the substantial growth of orders for related businesses. Quarter by quarter, the revenue of 2021q4 company reached 241 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 130% and a month on month decrease of 23%. The revenue of Q4 was lower than our expectation. We judged that it was mainly due to the delay of order acceptance. In the short term, by the end of 2021, the company's contract liabilities had reached 129 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 221%, and its inventory was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 170%. The company has sufficient orders on hand. With the operation of Tianjin production base, the company's capacity bottleneck is expected to be broken, which will ensure the continued high growth of performance in 2022.
The scale effect of the company is obvious. In 2021, the net interest rate deducted from non parent companies increased significantly. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to parent companies of 439 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 120%, which is in line with market expectations. The net profit deducted from non parent companies was 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 194%, mainly due to the net income from changes in fair value of 55 million yuan in 2020. In 2021, the net profit margin of the company's sales was 49.96%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.15pct, and the net profit margin deducted from non parent company was 49.48%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.27pct. Specifically, ① gross profit side: the gross profit margin of the company's sales in 2021 was 80.22%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.47pct, with a slight increase of the gross profit margin of test system and accessories + 0.21pct and + 1.09pct respectively, We judge that the main reason is the strong market demand & new products are launched one after another; ② Expense side: in 2021, the company's expense ratio was 23.48%, with a year-on-year increase of -11.97 PCT, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio decreased by 3.76/3.95/4.17/0.08 PCT respectively year-on-year. The obvious scale effect of the company is the main reason for the significant increase of the company's net interest rate after deduction from non parent company in 2021.
Forward looking layout of SoC / GaN testing equipment to further open the growth space. While maintaining the leading position of analog testing machines, the company expands new SoC / GaN testing machines, and the growth space continues to open: ① we expect the global SOC testing machine market to reach US $1.9 billion in 2020, about 4-5 times that of analog testing machines. At present, the market is monopolized by overseas leaders such as thalida & edwan, Localization needs to be broken through. The company has deep technical reserves in the field of SOC integrated circuits & high-power device testing. The new product sts8300 has won orders from many high-quality customers and has achieved a certain installed capacity. After the IPO project is completed, it will form a production capacity of 200 SoC Test equipment per year, further opening up the growth space of the company; ② 2021 is the first year of Gan volume. At present, the company's orders for third-generation semiconductors have increased significantly, and its products have entered head customers such as Navitas, STMicroelectronics and Huawei, which will continue to benefit from the high growth and incremental demand of the industry brought by emerging applications downstream.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the continued strong demand in the closed beta market, we maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 to be 640 million yuan and 873 million yuan respectively, and predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 1.159 billion yuan. The corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 40, 29 and 22 times respectively. Considering the good growth of the company, we maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the capital expenditure of semiconductor industry is lower than expected, the R & D of SOC tester and high-power device test system is lower than market expectation, and the localization of Gan test equipment is lower than expected.
