\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 53 Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.4%, and the performance was in line with our expectations.
The performance of the single quarter increased rapidly, and the operating cash flow increased significantly: Quarterly, the company achieved an operating revenue of 100 million yuan in the single quarter of 2021 Q4, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 42.11 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 37.59 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.9%. In terms of expenses, the company's sales expenses in 2021 were 120 million yuan (+ 17%, year-on-year, the same below), and the sales expense rate was 30.52% (- 5.07pp); The management expense is 30.07 million yuan (+ 40.7%), and the management expense rate is 7.51% (+ 0.22pp), which is mainly due to the operation of the new plant; The R & D expense was 35.18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, and the R & D expense rate was 8.79% (-0.27pp). In addition, in 2021, the company realized operating cash flow of 170 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.3%.
Oral prosthetic film grew rapidly and dural (spinal) patch grew steadily: from the perspective of business, with the gradual improvement of covid-19 epidemic situation in China and the full opening of oral terminals, the sales revenue of the company's oral prosthetic film products reached 190 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 49%; In terms of absorbable dural patches, the company won the bid in all the volume procurement carried out in Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, Henan and Hebei, and achieved an annual revenue of 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Considering that the sales volume driven by volume procurement is expected to make up for the decline in price, we expect that volume procurement will have a limited impact on the revenue of relevant products of the company in the future. In addition, in 2021, the income of bone repair materials was 35.56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.2%, with a strong growth momentum.
There are abundant reserves of projects under research, and active biological bone is expected to become a heavy variety: in November 2021, the company's product "active biological bone" has completed the submission of supplementary materials. With reference to Medtronic BMP2 bone powder, the peak sales are close to US $1 billion, and there is great market potential in the future. In December 2021, the company's self-developed product surgical packing sponge obtained the registration certificate, and in February 2022, the company's self etching adhesive was approved, further enriching the company's product line in the field of Stomatology. In addition, "urethral patch" entered the stage of case enrollment. "Guided tissue regeneration membrane" is in the stage of clinical trial effect evaluation. R & D projects such as breast patch, 3D printed bone repair material, dental repair material, uterine cavity repair membrane, phosphoric acid etchant and pit and fissure sealant are being promoted in an orderly manner, laying the foundation for the long-term growth of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 at 206 / 289 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be 391 million yuan. The current market value corresponds to 41 / 29 / 21 times of PE from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of R & D registration falling short of expectations, the risk of intensified market competition, and the risk of carrying out volume procurement policy exceeding expectations
