\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
The company is a leading medium and high-end business casual men's wear enterprise in China, mainly engaged in the design, production and sales of medium and high-end business casual men's wear. The company's transformation from youth to fashion has begun to show results, and the transformation of intelligent production provides a leading advantage for business customization. Hazys is growing rapidly and multi brand matrix is taking shape. The performance of offline channels is stable, the growth space of online channels is broad, and the performance is expected to maintain steady growth. First coverage, give buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
The leader of medium and high-end business casual men's wear in China has achieved remarkable performance growth under the epidemic Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) mainly engaged in the design, production and sales of medium and high-end business casual men's wear. The company has perfect brand matrix, rich experience in product design and production, and its sales revenue has expanded steadily year by year. From 2017 to 2020, the company's operating revenue increased from 2.601 billion yuan to 3.795 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 13.35%. Under the influence of the epidemic, the company still keeps growing against the trend with its strong product strength. The company continues to be in a leading position in the men's clothing industry. In the future, with the further development of e-commerce channels, it is expected to obtain new performance growth.
The main brand is young and leisure oriented, and online is expected to maintain high growth. Through offline store expansion and online platform cooperation, promote the small program operation of wechat mall, and improve the revenue of the main brand Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) dual channel. It is expected that the growth rate of e-commerce will exceed 30% in 2021. Launch light formal dress series, create a brand image of leisure and youth, and expand the consumer base. Deeply cultivate personalized customization business, promote digital reform, intelligent manufacturing, improve service efficiency, and achieve a 63.5% growth rate of H1 main brand revenue in 2021.
Hazys has entered the net store opening cycle, with large store opening space and rapid growth, contributing to performance growth. The compound growth rate of hazys performance in recent three years has reached 88.39%, and the number of outlets is 382, including 277 Direct stores and 92 franchise stores. With reference to the peer brand Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , there is still much room for expansion in the number of offline stores, especially the number of franchise stores, and the renewal of agency rights in 10 years will support future growth. The sub brand BAONIAO is outstanding, and kemiche and lefeiye are expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.501/5.239/5.962 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.01/6.47/757 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.41/0.53/0.62 yuan / share, and the current stock price corresponds to 11 / 8 / 7 times of 2021e-2023e P / E ratio. First coverage, give buy rating.
Main risks of rating
As a result of the epidemic, the sales performance of stores is less than expected, the expansion of new stores is less than expected, and there is a risk of inventory backlog
