\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 161 Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) )
Event: Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) held the 16th meeting of the 8th board of directors and announced that Guizhou blood system, Wuhan blood system and Shanghai blood system were approved to set up a total of 8 plasma collection stations.
New pulp stations were obtained in batch again, showing the advantages of blood making central enterprises. A total of 8 new apheresis stations have been approved this time, including 4 new apheresis stations in Luodian, Liping, Fenggang and Jiangkou in Guizhou, 2 new apheresis stations in Yangxin and Honghu in Hubei, and 2 new apheresis stations in Yushu and Nong'an in Jilin. A total of 14 new plasma collection stations in Jiangsu Province and Hubei Province have been approved, and a total of 14 new plasma collection stations have been set up in Jiangsu Province and Hubei Province; Up to now, the total number of the company's pulp stations has reached about 82 (including this new one). We expect that new pulp stations will be approved in Yunnan and other provinces this year, and the scale of the company's pulp stations will be further expanded to 90-100, showing the advantages of blood making central enterprises. In terms of regional layout of pulp stations, through the new establishment of pulp stations, the breakthrough of pulp stations in Guizhou and Jilin provinces will be realized, and the regional distribution of pulp stations in China will be more balanced.
The product pipeline is gradually enriched, and the profit per ton of pulp is expected to increase gradually. The company has recently announced that significant progress has been made in the clinical trials of several products under research. Among them, human prothrombin complex, human fibrinogen, recombinant human coagulation factor VIII for injection and intravenous human immunoglobulin (pH 4, 10%) (chromatography) have completed phase III clinical trials and obtained the summary report of clinical trials. Only green cross and Novartis Nordisk products for injection have been imported and Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) approved for listing in China, The price of the product is much higher than that of human blood coagulation factor VIII. High purity and high-quality chromatography Jingbing has not been listed in China; In addition, subcutaneous injection of human immunoglobulin (injection), intravenous injection of cytomegalovirus human immunoglobulin (pH4) and intravenous injection of covid-19 human immunoglobulin (pH4) entered phase III, phase III and phase II clinical trials respectively, and no similar products were listed in China. The company's three major coagulation product pipelines are about to be supplemented. Several exclusive products in China and even the first products in the world have entered the late clinical stage. The product pipelines are gradually enriched, and the profit per ton of plasma is expected to gradually increase.
We wait for the transformation from quantitative change to qualitative change. We believe that this year and next will be an extraordinary period for the company from quantitative change to qualitative change. First, the continuous batch of new pulp stations and old pulp stations will further tap the potential, and the annual pulp production of the company will continue to increase. Second, the pipeline will be gradually enriched. Several pipeline products have entered the later stage of clinical research and development and will be listed successively, which will effectively promote the continuous increase of profit per ton of pulp, Scale development and quality development jointly promote the transformation of the company from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Profit forecast: referring to the performance express of 2021, we predict that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be 4.108 billion yuan, 4.828 billion yuan and 5.862 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, 17.5% and 21.4% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 764 million yuan, 942 million yuan and 1.185 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, 23.3% and 25.9% respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating according to 52 times of PE (2021e) corresponding to yesterday's closing price (27.33 yuan / share).
Risk tip: the impact of China's epidemic on plasma collection is less than expected; The time when the products under development are approved for listing is less than expected; Product quality risk; Systemic risk.
